You have been caught by a gangster who gives you the chance of escaping by playing a simple game. There are 5 rooms, connected in a cycle as
S
−
R
1
−
R
2
−
R
3
−
D
. You are blindfolded. For each room you go, you must choose one door randomly and enter it.
If you reach S you are released, but if you reach D you are killed. If you start at R 1 , the probability that you will survive the game is q p , where p and q are coprime positive integers. Find p + q .
Note that you have two choices for the door to enter in each room. You can visualize the rooms as vertices of a regular pentagon, which are labeled in order as S − R 1 − R 2 − R 3 − D .
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Pretty stupid gangster I suppose.
gd one!!!
if we're starting at R1, dont we know where s is??
:P :P
4 is not prime
What if one goes this way. 1) First chance escape 0.5 2) First to R2 then back to R1 and S 0.125 3) likely to R3 and then back and back 0.03125 So the series leads to answer of 85+128= 213 Can't be this way??
Let P 1 , P 2 and P 3 be the probabilities of escape if you are in room 1, 2 and 3, respectively.
If you are in room 1, you have a 2 1 chance of choosing door S and a 2 1 chance of choosing room 2, so we have P 1 = 2 1 + 2 1 P 2
If you are in room 2, you have a 2 1 chance of choosing room 1 and a 2 1 chance of choosing room 3, so we have P 2 = 2 1 P 1 + 2 1 P 3
If you are in room 3, you have a 2 1 chance of surely dying and a 2 1 chance of choosing room 2, so we have P 3 = 2 1 ( 0 ) + 2 1 P 2
Solving the three equations simultaneously, we arrive at P 1 = 4 3 , P 2 = 2 1 , P 3 = 4 1 . Thus the answer is 3 + 4 = 7
I'll touch on two solutions aside from the ones already posted. The first one is a bit technical, as it requires knowledge of martingale theory, but the second is pretty intuitive as it follows from Newtonian mechanics.
Solved using Stochastic Processes:
This is equivalent to a symmetric random walk with barriers at -1 and 3 starting from 0. Since the process is a martingale, we can use the optional stopping theorem (Doob's optional sampling theorem) to solve for the probability we survive:
P ( s u r v i v e ) × − 1 + ( 1 − P ( S u r v i v e ) ) × 3 = 0 .
Solving for P(Survive), we get 4 3 , so 3 + 4 = 7 .
Solved using Basic Mechanics from Physics:
Alternatively, consider we had a see-saw of length 1, with a 1 pound kid sitting on one end and a 3 pound kid sitting on another end. To balance, you'll notice we have to place the fulcrum closer to the fatter kid since he's heavier. The distance from the 1 pound kid to the fulcrum is the probability that we survive (fulcrum is placed at distance 4 3 from the 1 pound kid) .
There's a 2 1 chance of immediate survival, and a 2 1 chance of moving to R 2 . If you go to R 2 , you are situated exactly halfway between life and death, so there is a 2 1 chance of survival.
Summing up the cases gives 2 1 + 2 1 ⋅ 2 1 = 4 3 , so the answer is 3 + 4 = 7 .
Because at first time, probability 0.5 go to S, 0.5 go to R1. R1 is in the middle of S and D => Probability 0.5 will be distributed equally between D and S. So probability to be survive is: 0 . 5 + 0 . 2 5 = 0 . 7 5 = 4 3 = > p + q = 7 .
THERE ARE 5 ROOMS..LET ME START WITH R1 THEN I GOT 4 DOORS TO ENTER IF I CHOOSE D THEN I SHALL NOT SURVIVE. THEREFORE PROBABILITY NOT TO SURVIVE IS 1/4 PROBABILITY FOR SURVIVE 1-1/4=3/4=p/q p+q=3+4=7
Pro tip: Posting in allcaps is not aesthetically pleasing for people who read your solution. What's more, a kitten DIES.
Shubhadeep, your answers is correct, but the solution is incorrect. You can only enter two rooms while you are in a particular room. Think of the rooms as a vertices of a pentagon.
That is a very lucky coincidence
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Note that if you are on R 2 , The probabilities of ending up in S or D are equal, since they are both two rooms away.
So the probability of surviving once you get to R 2 is 2 1 .
When you are on R 1 , you have a probability of 2 1 that you escape, and a probability of 2 1 that you escape with a probability of 2 1 .
So the probability that you escape is 2 1 + 2 1 ∗ 2 1 = 4 3 .
Since 3 and 4 are coprime, the required answer is 3 + 4 = 7 .