Tossing a coin

When you toss a coin 17 times, what is the probability that you get atleast 11 consecutive heads ?

If your answer is of the form a b \large \frac{a}{b} where a , b a,b are positive integers and are relatively prime to each other, find the value of a + b a+b .


The answer is 513.

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1 solution

Pari Verma
Apr 22, 2018

Let a 1 , a 2 a 17 a_1, a_2 \dots a_{17} represent the outcome of the 17 coin tosses. To enumerate all the possibilities of at least 11 consecutive heads we consider the following two cases :-

Case 1: The first 11 coin tosses are all heads, i.e. a 1 = a 2 = a 3 a 11 = H e a d s a_1 = a_2 = a_3 \dots a_{11} = Heads . The number of such cases are 2 6 2^6 , corresponding to the number of ways to assign the variables a 12 a 17 a_{12} \dots a_{17} .

Case 2: The first 11 coin tosses are not consecutive 11 heads. To count the number of such cases let's assume that a i , a i + 1 a i + 10 a_i, a_{i+1} \dots a_{i+10} be the first 11 consecutive heads for some 2 i 7 2 \leq i \leq 7 . Since a i , a i + 1 a i + 10 a_i, a_{i+1} \dots a_{i+10} are first consecutive heads a i 1 a_{i-1} must be Tails. It means that ( a i 1 , a i , a i + 1 a i + 10 a_{i-1},a_i, a_{i+1} \dots a_{i+10} ) can be considered as a bundle which corresponds to (Tails, Heads, Heads . . . Heads). Apart from the bundle there are 5 other elements (say b 1 , b 2 , b 3 , b 4 , b 5 b_1, b_2, b_3, b_4, b_5 ) which can be assigned in 2 5 2^5 ways. Now the bundle can be placed at 6 places (amongst the remaining elements, b i b_i 's) which means that the total possibilities are 6 × 2 5 6\times 2^5 .

The total number of possibilities thus are 2 6 + 6 × 2 5 = 2 8 2^6 + 6\times 2^5 = 2^8 . Which means that the probability is 2 8 / 2 17 = 1 / 512 2^8/2^{17} = 1/512 . Thus a = 1 , b = 512 a=1,b=512 and a + b = 513 a+b = 513 .

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