When you toss a coin 17 times, what is the probability that you get atleast 11 consecutive heads ?
If your answer is of the form where are positive integers and are relatively prime to each other, find the value of .
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Let a 1 , a 2 … a 1 7 represent the outcome of the 17 coin tosses. To enumerate all the possibilities of at least 11 consecutive heads we consider the following two cases :-
Case 1: The first 11 coin tosses are all heads, i.e. a 1 = a 2 = a 3 … a 1 1 = H e a d s . The number of such cases are 2 6 , corresponding to the number of ways to assign the variables a 1 2 … a 1 7 .
Case 2: The first 11 coin tosses are not consecutive 11 heads. To count the number of such cases let's assume that a i , a i + 1 … a i + 1 0 be the first 11 consecutive heads for some 2 ≤ i ≤ 7 . Since a i , a i + 1 … a i + 1 0 are first consecutive heads a i − 1 must be Tails. It means that ( a i − 1 , a i , a i + 1 … a i + 1 0 ) can be considered as a bundle which corresponds to (Tails, Heads, Heads . . . Heads). Apart from the bundle there are 5 other elements (say b 1 , b 2 , b 3 , b 4 , b 5 ) which can be assigned in 2 5 ways. Now the bundle can be placed at 6 places (amongst the remaining elements, b i 's) which means that the total possibilities are 6 × 2 5 .
The total number of possibilities thus are 2 6 + 6 × 2 5 = 2 8 . Which means that the probability is 2 8 / 2 1 7 = 1 / 5 1 2 . Thus a = 1 , b = 5 1 2 and a + b = 5 1 3 .