Transform The Minimum Score

A fair 4-sided die is rolled 200 200 times. Let X i X_i be the score obtained at the i i -th toss ( 1 i 200 1 \leq i \leq 200 ). Define U 1 = min ( X 1 , X 2 ) U_1=\textrm{min}(X_1,X_2) , i.e. the minimum of the first two tosses. Compute ( k P ( U 1 = k ) ) 1 \left \lceil \left (\prod_{k} P(U_1=k) \right ) ^{-1} \right \rceil where k k ranges over all possible values it attains.


The answer is 625.

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1 solution

Henry U
Feb 25, 2019

All possible outcomes of the two first rolls can be arranged in a 4 × 4 4 \times 4 table

1 2 3 4 X 1 1 ( 1 , 1 ) ( 1 , 2 ) ( 1 , 3 ) ( 1 , 4 ) 2 ( 2 , 1 ) ( 2 , 2 ) ( 2 , 3 ) ( 2 , 4 ) 3 ( 3 , 1 ) ( 3 , 2 ) ( 3 , 3 ) ( 3 , 4 ) 4 ( 4 , 1 ) ( 4 , 2 ) ( 4 , 3 ) ( 4 , 4 ) X 2 \begin{array}{ccccccc} & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & X_1 \\ 1 & (1,1) & (1,2) & (1,3) & (1,4) \\ 2 & (2,1) & {\color{#D61F06}(2,2)} & {\color{#D61F06}(2,3)} & {\color{#D61F06}(2,4)} \\ 3 & (3,1) & {\color{#D61F06}(3,2)} & {\color{#3D99F6}(3,3)} & {\color{#3D99F6}(3,4)} \\ 4 & (4,1) & {\color{#D61F06}(4,2)} & {\color{#3D99F6}(4,3)} & {\color{#20A900}(4,4)} \\ X_2 \end{array}

For all black results, U 1 = 1 U_1 = 1 , for red results U 1 = 2 U_1 = 2 and so on for U 1 = 3 , 4 U_1 = 3,4 .

Hence, we derive the values

P ( U 1 = 1 ) = 7 16 P(U_1 = 1) = \frac {7}{16}

P ( U 1 = 2 ) = 5 16 P(U_1 = 2) = \frac {5}{16}

P ( U 1 = 3 ) = 3 16 P(U_1 = 3) = \frac {3}{16}

P ( U 1 = 4 ) = 1 16 P(U_1 = 4) = \frac {1}{16}

With this, we can now work out the product

( k P ( U 1 = k ) ) 1 = ( 7 16 5 16 3 16 1 16 ) 1 = 65536 105 = 625 \begin{aligned} & \displaystyle \left\lceil \left( \prod_k P(U_1 = k) \right) ^{-1} \right\rceil \\ =& \left\lceil \left( \frac {7}{16} \cdot \frac {5}{16} \cdot \frac {3}{16} \cdot \frac {1}{16} \right) ^{-1} \right\rceil \\ =& \left\lceil \frac {65536}{105} \right\rceil \\ =& \boxed{625} \end{aligned}

Perfect solution. But why on earth did we roll the dice 200 times?!

Chris Lewis - 2 years, 3 months ago

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I don't know. Maybe there's a second part coming for U n = min ( X n , X n + 1 ) U_n = \text{min}(X_n,X_{n+1}) over all 1 n 199 1 \leq n \leq 199 ... Or it was just to confuse us.

Henry U - 2 years, 3 months ago

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It was supposed to be a trick question for whom doesn't consider the indipendence of the tosses, ahah.

Ervin Tronati - 2 years, 3 months ago

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