Trials until First Success

On the average, how many times must a die be thrown until one gets a 6?


This problem is taken from Frederick Mosteller's book Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability with Solutions.


The answer is 6.

This section requires Javascript.
You are seeing this because something didn't load right. We suggest you, (a) try refreshing the page, (b) enabling javascript if it is disabled on your browser and, finally, (c) loading the non-javascript version of this page . We're sorry about the hassle.

2 solutions

Let p p be the probability of a 6 on a given trial. Then the probabilities of success for the first time on each trial are (let q = 1 p q=1-p ):

Trial Probability of success on trial
1 p p
2 p q pq
3 p q 2 pq^2
4 p q 3 pq^3
. .
. .
. .

The sum of probabilities is p + p q + p q 2 + . . . = 1 p+pq+pq^2+...=1 .

The mean numbers of trials, m m , is by definition,

m = p + 2 p q + 3 p q 2 + 4 p q 3 + . . . m=p+2pq+3pq^2+4pq^3+... .

Multiplying by q q gives

q m = p q + 2 p q 2 + 3 p q 3 + . . . qm=pq+2pq^2+3pq^3+... .

Subtracting the second expression from the first gives

m q m = p + p q + p q 2 + p q 3 + . . . m-qm=p+pq+pq^2+pq^3+... ,

m ( 1 q ) = 1 m(1-q)=1

Consequently,

m p = 1 mp=1 , and m = 1 / p m=1/p .

Here, p = 1 6 p=\frac{1}{6} , and so m = 6 m=6 .

William Huang
Aug 28, 2017

There are 6 6 possibilities when rolling the die. 1 6 \frac{1}{6} is the chance to roll a 6 6 . On average, if you roll the die 6 6 time, 1 6 \frac{1}{6} will be a six. So, that concludes the answer for the question to be, 6 6 .

Not necessarily. This is a pretty common mistake made because it seems to be true in the "simple" cases. The probability of something happening doesn't equal to the inverse of the expected number of times for it to happen.

(However, if you can establish the cases when the statement is true, then you can apply it to this scenario.)

Calvin Lin Staff - 3 years, 9 months ago

0 pending reports

×

Problem Loading...

Note Loading...

Set Loading...