My friend and I play a game. Each of us starts with two coins, and we take turns tossing a coin,
If it comes down heads, we keep it ourself; if tails, we give it to the other.
I always go first, and the game ends when one of us wins by having all four coins.
If we play this game 1400 times, what is the expected number of games that I would win?
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For j = 1 , 2 , 3 , let A j be the event that I win given that I currently have j coins and it is my turn to play. Let p j = P [ A j ] . We calculate probabilities conditional on the outcome of the next one or two tosses: p 1 p 2 p 3 = P [ A 1 ∣ T ] 2 1 + P [ A 1 ∣ H H ] 4 1 + P [ A 1 ∣ H T ] 4 1 = 4 1 p 1 + 4 1 p 2 = P [ A 2 ∣ T T ] 4 1 + P [ A 2 ∣ T H ] 4 1 + P [ A 2 ∣ H T ] 4 1 + P [ A 2 ∣ H H ] 4 1 = 4 1 p 1 + 2 1 p 2 + 4 1 p 3 = P [ A 3 ∣ T T ] 4 1 + P [ A 3 ∣ T H ] 4 1 + P [ A 3 ∣ H T ] 4 1 + P [ A 3 ∣ H H ] 4 1 = 4 1 p 2 + 2 1 p 3 + 4 1 Solving these equations, p 1 = 7 1 , p 2 = 7 3 , p 3 = 7 5 . Thus the required expected number of won games is 1 4 0 0 p 2 = 6 0 0 .