Trusting Issues

You are lost in the National Park of Kabrastan. The park population consists of tourists and Kabrastanis. Tourists comprise two-thirds of the population the park, and give a correct answer to requests for directions with probability 3 4 \frac{3}{4} . The air of Kabrastan has an amnesaic quality however, and so the answers to repeated questions to tourists are independent, even if the question and the person are the same. If you ask a Kabrastani for directions, the answer is always wrong.

Suppose you ask a randomly chosen passer-by whether the exit from the park is East or West. The answer is East. You then ask the same person again, and the reply is again East. What is the probability of East being correct?

1 2 \dfrac{1}{2} 2 3 \dfrac{2}{3} 3 4 \dfrac{3}{4} 1 4 \dfrac{1}{4} 1 3 \dfrac{1}{3}

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2 solutions

First Last
Jun 20, 2017

Let's say that the answer was NOT \textbf{NOT} the same for the second question. You pick a tourist and they answer different in 2 different orders (ways):

2 3 × ( 1 4 3 4 + 3 4 1 4 ) = 1 4 chance \frac2{3}\times (\frac1{4}\frac3{4}+\frac3{4}\frac1{4}) = \frac1{4}\text{ chance}

Now the probability of getting the same answer in a row is 1 3 4 = 1 4 1-\frac3{4}=\frac1{4} . Getting the same correct answer in a row can only occur from the tourist with probability:

2 3 × ( 3 4 3 4 ) = 3 8 \frac2{3}\times (\frac3{4}\,\frac3{4})=\frac3{8}

This is exactly half of 3 4 \frac3{4} (the chances of getting 2 in a row, which we know happened) so the answer is 1 2 \boxed{\frac1{2}}

Marta Reece
Jun 20, 2017

If the correct answer is East, only the tourists will give you the right answer twice, and the probability of that will be 3 4 × 3 4 = 9 16 \frac34\times\frac34=\frac9{16} . And since the tourists are 2 3 \frac23 of the population, the overall probability of the East/East answer will be 2 3 × 9 16 = 3 8 \frac23\times\frac9{16}=\frac38 .

If the correct answer is actually West, the locals will give you 1 3 \frac13 probability of East/East answer right there, and the tourist will contribute 2 3 × 1 16 = 1 24 \frac23\times\frac1{16}=\frac1{24} . Adding these together will come up with 1 3 + 1 24 = 8 24 = 3 8 \frac13+\frac1{24}=\frac8{24}=\frac38 , exactly the same as what we got for East.

The probability of East being the correct answer is therefore 1 2 \boxed{\frac12}

But here is a nagging question of mine: If the correct answer is East, we have 3 8 \frac38 chance of hearing East/East. If the correct answer is West, we have 3 8 \frac38 chance of hearing East/East. But concluding from that that they are equally likely is making some type of an assumption about the nature of the universe, about East and West being created equal, about no underlying preference for either. What if East is actually correct million times more often than West, what then? 3 8 \frac38 of a million will not be the same as 3 8 \frac38 of one.

Marta Reece - 3 years, 11 months ago

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Actually, if east is correct, we can say that east is correct not just a million times more often, but infinitely more often - it is correct 100% of the time. However, the point of probability is to figure out the correct answer with limited evidence. If we knew east was correct a million times more often, the problem would be different. But we don't know that, so we must calculate the odds with what we do.

Alex Li - 3 years, 11 months ago

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