I have a 6-sided die. How many times minimum should I throw this die in order to be 9 9 % certain that I will throw at least one 6 ?
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The probability of rolling a 6 in n rolls is 1 − ( probability of rolling a 6 ) n = 1 − ( 6 5 ) n 1 − ( 6 5 ) n ( 6 5 ) n n ≥ 0 . 9 9 ≤ 0 . 0 1 ≥ lo g ( . 0 1 ) lo g ( 6 5 ) ≈ 2 5 . 2 6 Thus you'd have to roll the die at least 2 6 to guarantee a 9 9 % chance of a 6.
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The probability of not getting a 6 after n throws is q = ( 6 5 ) n . Therefore, the probability of getting at least a 6 after n throws is p = 1 − q = 1 − ( 6 5 ) n . Then we have:
p 1 − ( 6 5 ) n ⟹ ( 6 5 ) n n ( lo g 1 0 5 − lo g 1 0 6 ) ⟹ n n ≥ 0 . 9 9 ≥ 0 . 9 9 ≤ 0 . 0 1 ≤ − 2 ≥ lo g 1 0 6 − lo g 1 0 5 2 ≈ 2 5 . 2 5 9 = 2 6 Taking lo g 1 0 both sides