Trying to be certain

I have a 6-sided die. How many times minimum should I throw this die in order to be 99 % 99\% certain that I will throw at least one 6 6 ?

36 16 26 6

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2 solutions

Chew-Seong Cheong
Oct 29, 2018

The probability of not getting a 6 after n n throws is q = ( 5 6 ) n q = \left(\dfrac 56\right)^n . Therefore, the probability of getting at least a 6 after n n throws is p = 1 q = 1 ( 5 6 ) n p = 1 - q = 1 - \left(\dfrac 56\right)^n . Then we have:

p 0.99 1 ( 5 6 ) n 0.99 ( 5 6 ) n 0.01 Taking log 10 both sides n ( log 10 5 log 10 6 ) 2 n 2 log 10 6 log 10 5 25.259 n = 26 \begin{aligned} p & \ge 0.99 \\ 1 - \left(\dfrac 56\right)^n & \ge 0.99 \\ \implies \left(\dfrac 56\right)^n & \le 0.01 & \small \color{#3D99F6} \text{Taking }\log_{10} \text{ both sides} \\ n \left(\log_{10} 5 - \log_{10} 6\right) & \le - 2 \\ \implies n & \ge \frac 2{\log_{10} 6 - \log_{10} 5} \approx 25.259 \\ n & = \boxed{26} \end{aligned}

Jordan Cahn
Oct 29, 2018

The probability of rolling a 6 in n n rolls is 1 ( probability of rolling a 6 ) n = 1 ( 5 6 ) n 1-(\text{probability of rolling a }6)^n = 1-\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^n 1 ( 5 6 ) n 0.99 ( 5 6 ) n 0.01 n log ( 5 6 ) log ( . 01 ) 25.26 \begin{aligned} 1-\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^n &\geq 0.99 \\ \left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^n &\leq 0.01 \\ n &\geq \frac{\log\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)}{\log(.01)}\approx 25.26 \end{aligned} Thus you'd have to roll the die at least 26 \boxed{26} to guarantee a 99 % 99\% chance of a 6.

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