UNSW MathSoc Championship Q10

A fair coin is tossed until two successive heads occur or two successive tails occur. If the first toss results in a head, what is the chance that the game will end with two successive tails?


The answer is 0.333.

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1 solution

Abhishek Sinha
Oct 21, 2017

Let p = P ( T T H ) p=\mathbb{P}(TT|H) denote the probability that the game ends with two successive tails given the first toss results in a Head, Similarly define other events. Define q = P ( H H H ) q=\mathbb{P}(HH|H) . Then, due to symmetry, we have p = P ( H H T ) , q = P ( T T T ) , p + q = 1. p=\mathbb{P}(HH|T), \hspace{10pt} q=\mathbb{P}(TT|T), \hspace{10pt} p+q=1. Conditioning on the first outcome, we have p = 1 2 × 0 + 1 2 q p = \frac{1}{2}\times 0 + \frac{1}{2}q . This gives p = 1 3 , q = 2 3 . p=\frac{1}{3}, q=\frac{2}{3}.

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