Waiting for the bus (II)

Buses A, B, C and D come every 5, 6, 7 and 8 minutes respectively. Assuming that the buses arrive on time with unknown but equidistributed phases, what is the waiting time for the first bus to come on average in minutes? The answer is in the simplest form a b \frac{a}{b} , enter a + b a+b .


The answer is 4531.

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1 solution

Cz Seow
May 11, 2019

Consider the senario when there is two buses A and B coming every 6 and 10 minutes respectively. Let the time taken to wait for bus A and B after arriving at the bus stop be T A T_{A} and T B T_{B} respectively. 0 T A 6 0\leq T_{A}\leq 6 , 0 T B 10 0\leq T_{B}\leq 10

Then, the waiting time T = m i n ( T A , T B ) T=min(T_{A},T_{B}) . Graphing T = { T A T A < T B T B T B < T A T = \left\{\begin{matrix} T_{A} & T_{A}<T_{B}\\ T_{B} & T_{B}<T_{A} \end{matrix}\right. , we get and .

Let l T = l_{T}= length of a contour line (or the level curve) for some value of T T . Then, the probability distribution f T l T f_{T}\propto l_{T} .

Normalising f T f_{T} gives l T 0 T A l T d T = l T T A T B \frac{l_{T}}{\int_{0}^{T_{A}}l_{T}\: dT}=\frac{l_{T}}{T_{A}T_{B}}

The expected waiting time E ( T ) = 0 T A T f T d T = 0 T A T l T d T T A T B E(T)=\int_{0}^{T_{A}}Tf_{T}\: dT=\frac{\int_{0}^{T_{A}}Tl_{T}dT}{T_{A}T_{B}}

The volume of the solid represented = 0 T A T l T d T = 0 T A T ( T + b ) d T =\int_{0}^{T_{A}}Tl_{T}dT=\int_{0}^{T_{A}}T(T+b)dT by observation where b = T B T A b=T_{B}-T_{A} . E ( T ) = 0 T A T ( T + b ) d T T A T B \therefore E(T)=\frac{\int_{0}^{T_{A}}T(T+b)dT}{T_{A}T_{B}}

Generalising this to higher dimensions gives E ( T ) = 0 T A T ( T + b ) ( T + c ) . . . d T T A T B T C . . . , T A = m i n ( T A , T B , T C . . . ) E(T)=\frac{\int_{0}^{T_{A}}T(T+b)(T+c)...dT}{T_{A}T_{B}T_{C}...}, T_{A}=min(T_{A}, T_{B}, T_{C}...) where b = T B T A c = T C T A . . . \\b=T_{B}-T_{A} \\c=T_{C}-T_{A} \\\begin{matrix} & & . & \\ & & .& \\ & & .& \end{matrix}

Solving the above question, E ( T ) = 0 5 T ( T + 1 ) ( T + 2 ) ( T + 3 ) d T 5 × 6 × 7 × 8 = 2515 2016 E(T)=\frac{\int_{0}^{5}T(T+1)(T+2)(T+3)dT}{5\times6\times7\times8}=\boxed{\frac{2515}{2016}}

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