A person with a bunch of nine keys is to open a door but only one key can open. What is the probability that he will succeed in three trials?
Note: Assume that it is dark that he cannot see the correct key.
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The possibilities are o p e n , n o t o p e n − o p e n , n o t o p e n − n o t o p e n − o p e n .
P = 9 1 + 9 8 ( 8 1 ) + 9 8 ( 8 7 ) ( 7 1 ) = 3 1
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The answer is just 9 1 + 9 1 + 9 1 = 9 3 = 3 1 because each of the keys has a 1/9 probability of opening the door, and you are trying out 3 keys. By the Addition Rule of Probability, the answer is the sum of the three probabilities, or 3 1 .