When Will Petr Win?

Petr has ten different two-player board games on his shelf. He has them numbered 1 through 10. When he plays the game n n against Diego, he has a n 2 100 \frac{n^2}{100} chance of winning. If Petr rolls a fair ten-sided die to determine which game to play, the probability that he will win against Diego can be expressed as a b \frac{a}{b} where a a and b b are positive, coprime integers. What is the value of a + b a + b ?


The answer is 277.

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9 solutions

Wittmann Goh
May 20, 2014

When Petr plays Game 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10 against Diego, he has a 1 100 \frac {1}{100} , 4 100 \frac {4}{100} , 9 100 \frac {9}{100} , 16 100 \frac {16}{100} , 25 100 \frac {25}{100} , 36 100 \frac {36}{100} , 49 100 \frac {49}{100} , 64 100 \frac {64}{100} , 81 100 \frac {81}{100} , or 100 100 \frac {100}{100} chance of winning respectively. However, a fair 10-sided dice is rolled to determine the game that is played. Thus the chance of playing and winning a game is i 2 100 × 10 \frac {i^2}{100 \times 10} .

By the Rule of Sum, the probability of Petr winning against Diego is thus 1 2 + 2 2 + 3 2 + 4 2 + 5 2 + 6 2 + 7 2 + 8 2 + 9 2 + 1 0 2 100 × 10 = 77 200 \frac {1^2+2^2+3^2+4^2+5^2+6^2+7^2+8^2+9^2+10^2}{100 \times 10} = \frac {77}{200}

Thus, a + b = 277 a+b=277

Varun Rustagi
May 20, 2014

The probability that he wins is the summation of (probability of occurrence of ith game x probability of winning that game). Therefore the probability is: 0.1( 1 2 1^2 /100)+0.1( 2 2 2^2 /100)+0.1( 3 2 3^2 /100)+......+0.1( 1 0 2 10^2 /100) which is equal to 0.1 ((10)(10+1)(2(10)+1)/6)/100 (using sum of squares of first 10 natural numbers) which simplifies down to 385/1000 or 77/200.

Jonathan Mamplata
May 20, 2014

the probability that game i i will be selected is 1 10 \tfrac{1}{10} for i = 1 , 2 , . . . , 10 i=1, 2, ..., 10 . Hence, the probability that Peter will win against Diego if 1 10 ( 1 2 100 + 2 2 100 + + 1 0 2 100 ) = 1 10 10 ( 11 ) ( 21 ) 6 100 = 385 1000 = 77 200 \tfrac{1}{10}\left(\dfrac{1^2}{100} + \dfrac{2^2}{100} + \cdots + \dfrac{10^2}{100}\right) = \dfrac{1}{10}\cdot \dfrac{10(11)(21)}{6\cdot100} = \dfrac{385}{1000} = \dfrac{77}{200} . Thus, a = 77 a=77 and b = 200 b=200 . Therefore, a + b = 277 a+b=277

You must add the probability of winning each game. For example, in game 3, i =3, so the probability of winning is (i^2)/100, or 9/100. So (1/100) + (4/100) + (9/100) + (16/100) + (25/100) + (36/100) + (49/100) + (64/100) + (81/100) + (100/100) = (385/100). Since there are ten different games, each with equal probability of being chosen, to find the average you would have to divide this number by 10. (385/100)/10 is equal to (385/1000), which is simplified to (77/200), which is written in the form of a/b. Therefore, a+b would equal 200 + 77, or 277.

Harshit Kapur
May 20, 2014

By the addition rule, we have probability of winning of 10 10 games = i = 1 10 i 2 100 10 \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{10} \frac{i^2}{100}}{10}

= 1 2 100 + 2 2 100 + 3 2 100 + + 1 0 2 100 10 = \frac{\frac{1^2}{100} + \frac{2^2}{100} + \frac{3^2}{100} + \dots + \frac{10^2}{100}}{10} = 1 2 + 2 2 + 3 2 + + 1 0 2 1000 = \frac{1^2 + 2^2 + 3^2+ \dots + 10^2}{1000}

The sum of squares of the first n n natural numbers is given by n ( n + 1 ) ( 2 n + 1 ) 6 \frac{ n(n+1)(2n+1)}{6}

P ( winning ) = 10 × 11 × 21 6 × 1000 = 77 200 \therefore P(\text{winning}) = \frac{10 \times 11 \times 21}{6 \times 1000} = \frac{77}{200}

So the answer is 77 + 200 77 + 200 which is equal to 277 277 .

Jon May
May 20, 2014

There is a 1/10 chance of playing each game, and i^2/100 chance of winning each game. Working out sum(i^2) for i=1 to 10 comes to 385, and this needs to be divided by 1/10th of 1/100, or 1/1000. This makes 385/1000, which reduces to 77/200. The answer is 277.

Aandabaccha 93
May 20, 2014

We first count the probability of playing a certain game. Note that No matter which game is to be played, the probability is $$\frac{1}{10}$$. Now that we have selected a game to be played, We can continue computing the probability of Petr to win that game which is given as $$\frac{i^2}{100}$$ for $$ i=1,2,3,....10$$. So we add all such probabilities to get the desired answer which is $$ \frac{1}{10}\frac{1}{100} + \frac{1}{10}\frac{2^2}{100} + ..... +\frac{1}{10}\frac{10^2}{100}\Longleftrightarrow\frac{1}{10}\frac{385}{100}=\frac{77}{200}=\frac{a}{b}$$ Using the well known identity, $$ 1^2 + 2^2 +........+n^2 = \frac{n(n+1)(2n+1)}{6}$$ so, $$a+b=277$$

Calvin Lin Staff
May 13, 2014

Petr's probability of winning is the sum of the probability that he wins each game multiplied by the probability that he and Diego play that game. Since a fair die is rolled, the probability that he plays each game is 1 10 \frac{1}{10} . Thus, the probability Petr wins is i = 1 10 i 2 1000 \sum_{i = 1}^{10}\frac{i^2}{1000} . We can use the sum of squares formula to get that this is ( 10 ) ( 11 ) ( 21 ) ( 6 ) ( 1000 ) = 11 × 7 2 × 100 = 77 200 \frac{(10)(11)(21)}{(6)(1000)} = \frac {11 \times 7} { 2 \times 100} = \frac{77}{200} . Therefore, a + b = 77 + 200 = 277 a + b = 77 + 200 = 277 .

Divya Gopinath
May 20, 2014

There is a \frac {1}{10} or 10% chance that Petr picks each individual game. In addition, the COMBINED probability of winning all ten games would be \frac {1 + 4 + 9.. + 81 + 100}{100} . Multiplying that by .1 (the chance he picks each game), you get a final fraction of \frac {77}{200} . 200 + 77 equals 277.

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