Who shoots the target first?

A A and B B shoot independently until each shoots their target. They have probabilities 3 5 \frac{3}{5} and 5 7 \frac{5}{7} respectively of hitting the target at each shot. Find the probability that B B require more shots than A A .

If the answer is in the form a b \dfrac{a}{b} , where a a and b b are coprime positive integers, enter a + b a+b .


The answer is 37.

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1 solution

Let a , b a,b be the number of shots A , B A,B respectively takes until they hit the target. Then since their results are independent of one another, the desired probability will be

S = n = 1 ( P ( a = n ) × P ( b > n ) ) S = \displaystyle\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} (P(a = n) \times P(b \gt n)) .

Now for P ( a = n ) P(a = n) , A A must miss their first n 1 n - 1 shots and then hit on their n n th shot. Thus

P ( a = n ) = ( 1 3 5 ) n 1 × 3 5 = 3 2 × ( 2 5 ) n P(a = n) = \left(1 - \dfrac{3}{5}\right)^{n - 1} \times \dfrac{3}{5} = \dfrac{3}{2} \times \left(\dfrac{2}{5}\right)^{n} . Next, we have that

P ( b > n ) = k = n + 1 P ( b = k ) = k = n + 1 ( 2 7 ) k 1 × 5 7 = 5 7 k = n + 1 ( 2 7 ) k 1 = 5 7 × ( 2 7 ) n 1 2 7 = ( 2 7 ) n P(b \gt n) = \displaystyle\sum_{k=n+1}^{\infty} P(b = k) = \sum_{k=n+1}^{\infty} \left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^{k - 1} \times \dfrac{5}{7} = \dfrac{5}{7} \sum_{k=n + 1}^{\infty} \left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^{k-1} = \dfrac{5}{7} \times \dfrac{\left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^{n}}{1 - \dfrac{2}{7}} = \left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^{n} .

Thus S = 3 2 n = 1 ( 2 5 × 2 7 ) n = 3 2 × 4 35 1 4 35 = 3 2 × 4 31 = 6 31 S = \dfrac{3}{2} \displaystyle\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \left(\dfrac{2}{5} \times \dfrac{2}{7}\right)^{n} = \dfrac{3}{2} \times \dfrac{\dfrac{4}{35}}{1 - \dfrac{4}{35}} = \dfrac{3}{2} \times \dfrac{4}{31} = \dfrac{6}{31} .

So finally a + b = 6 + 31 = 37 a + b = 6 + 31 = \boxed{37} .

Comments: The probability that A , B A,B require the same number of shots will be

n = 1 ( P ( A = n ) × P ( B = n ) ) = n = 1 ( ( 4 35 ) n 1 × 3 5 × 5 7 ) = 3 7 × 1 1 4 35 = 3 7 × 35 31 = 15 31 \displaystyle\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} (P(A = n) \times P(B = n)) = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} \left(\left(\dfrac{4}{35}\right)^{n-1} \times \dfrac{3}{5} \times \dfrac{5}{7}\right) = \dfrac{3}{7} \times \dfrac{1}{1 - \dfrac{4}{35}} = \dfrac{3}{7} \times \dfrac{35}{31} = \dfrac{15}{31} .

The probability that B B requires fewer shots will then be 1 6 31 15 31 = 10 31 1 - \dfrac{6}{31} - \dfrac{15}{31} = \dfrac{10}{31} .

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