Consider the following version of the who wants to be a millionaire game: You are given a list , consisting of questions. You can answer the questions in any order you like. The probability that you answer the th question in correctly is and you win dollars for answering it correctly , . However, if you give a wrong answer to a question, the game ends immediately and you leave the game with the money you have already won (if any). Naturally, your objective is to answer the questions in an optimal order so as to maximize your expected winning. To be clear, is a permutation of natural numbers from to which corresponds to your order of answering questions from the list , e.g., if , it means that you answer the th question first from and so on.
Here is the data for questions, where the row numbers (on the left) correspond to question numbers in the list , the first column corresponds to the probabilities 's and the second column corresponds to the prizes 's.
Find in the optimal sequence.
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We will be solving the problem using an interchange argument . Consider any sequence of answering the questions S . Let X ( i ) denote the reward obtained from the i th question in the sequence S . Hence, the total expected reward E R obtained by answering the questions in the order of S is given by : E R = E i = 1 ∑ N X ( i ) = i = 1 ∑ N E X ( i ) Where we have used Linearity of Expectations in the last equality. Since we obtain a reward associated with the question ( i ) iff we answer all first i questions correctly, it follows that E X ( i ) = ( ∏ j = 1 i p ( j ) ) v ( i ) . Now consider another sequence S ′ , which is the same as S , except that we interchange the order of answering i th and i + 1 th questions, for some given i . Hence, from the above equation, it follows that the total expected reward E R ′ for answering the questions in the order of S ′ is given by E R ′ = E R + ( j = 1 ∏ i − 1 p j ) ( p ( i + 1 ) v ( i + 1 ) + p ( i ) p ( i + 1 ) v ( i ) − p ( i ) v ( i ) − p ( i ) p ( i + 1 ) v ( i + 1 ) ) If S is the optimal sequence, we must have E R ≥ E R ′ . This implies p ( i ) v ( i ) + p ( i ) p ( i + 1 ) v ( i + 1 ) ≥ p ( i + 1 ) v ( i + 1 ) + p ( i ) p ( i + 1 ) v ( i ) Rearranging, p ( i ) ( 1 − p ( i + 1 ) ) v ( i ) ≥ p ( i + 1 ) ( 1 − p ( i ) ) v ( i + 1 ) i.e., 1 − p ( i ) p ( i ) v ( i ) ≥ 1 − p ( i + 1 ) p ( i + 1 ) v ( i + 1 ) This implies that the optimal sequence is obtained by sorting the questions in the list L (in decreasing order) according to their scores s i = 1 − p i p i v i . Once we perform this sorting in the given data, we find that the 2 0 1 5 th position in the optimal list is occupied by the 3 1 3 2 nd question.