Your lucky day ......

Suppose you have a well-shuffled standard deck of cards, (faces down). You start turning over the cards, one at a time, from the top of the deck. Let S S be the expected number of cards you need to turn over before revealing all four 7 7 's.

If S = a b S = \dfrac{a}{b} , where a a and b b are positive coprime integers, then find a + b . a + b.


The answer is 217.

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2 solutions

Joe Mansley
Jul 2, 2019

How do you shuffle a deck of cards? Here's one way: Place the four 7s down on the table, with some space between. Now there are 3 spaces between the 7s and 2 spaces on either end. Place each of the remaining cards randomly in 1 of the 5 spaces. Then collect up the deck. The number of cards after the last 7 is equal to the number of cards in the last pile, and the expected value is 48*(1/5).

So S=52-48/5=212/5

This scenario is equivalent to finding the expected position of the last 7 7 in a string of x x 's and 7 7 's, where the x x 's represent any denomination other than a 7 7 .

Now there are ( 52 4 ) \binom{52}{4} ways the four 7 7 's can be positioned in the deck. There is one way that the string can have the last 7 7 in the 4 4 th position, ( 4 3 ) \binom{4}{3} ways in which the last 7 7 shows up in the 5 5 th position, and in general, ( n 3 ) \binom{n}{3} ways in which the last 7 7 can show up in the ( n + 1 ) (n + 1) st position for 3 n 51. 3 \le n \le 51.

The expected value is then the weighted average of these individual values, i.e.,

1 ( 52 4 ) n = 3 51 ( ( n 3 ) ( n + 1 ) ) = 4 ( 52 4 ) n = 4 52 ( n 4 ) = 4 ( 52 4 ) ( 53 5 ) \dfrac{1}{\binom{52}{4}}*\displaystyle\sum_{n=3}^{51} (\dbinom{n}{3}*(n + 1)) = \dfrac{4}{\binom{52}{4}}*\sum_{n=4}^{52} \dbinom{n}{4} = \dfrac{4}{\binom{52}{4}}*\dbinom{53}{5}

where this last step made use of the Hockey-Stick Identity .

Simplifying, this last value becomes 4 53 ! 48 ! 5 ! 52 ! 48 ! 4 ! = 4 53 5 = 212 5 . \dfrac{\frac{4*53!}{48!*5!}}{\frac{52!}{48!*4!}} = \dfrac{4*53}{5} = \dfrac{212}{5}.

Thus a + b = 212 + 5 = 217 . a + b = 212 + 5 = \boxed{217}.

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