A Seemingly Impossible Problem

The problem with the first argument is that the probabilities of each of the cases is different. In reality, the first case has one way, the second has 4 ways, the third has 6 ways, the fourth has 4 ways, and the last one has only 1 way. Thus the actual probability is $\dfrac{4+4}{1+4+6+4+1}=\dfrac{1}{2}$.

I disagree with Argument 1:

In case 1 there is only 1 outcome to make an even sum.

In case 2 there are 4 outcomes that make an odd sum

In case 3 there are 6 outcomes that make an even sum

In case 4 there are 4 outcomes that make an odd sum

In case 5 there is only 1 outcome to make an even sum.

Thus out of the 16 equally likely outcomes 8 will yield an odd sum and 8 will yield an even sum.

Therefore the probability that w + x + y + z is odd is 1/2.

Reminds me of Bertrand paradox, where three ways of choosing a seemingly the same uniformly random chord on a circle give different probability distributions (which means they are different).

Well, this is how i solve this problem.

Assume that we choose w, x, y first.

w + x + y = A.

Doesn't matter whether A is odd or even. z will be the one that decide whether the sum of w, x, y, z (assume w +x+y+z= B) is odd or even

=> With that the possibility for B to be odd = 50%

=> Argument 1: Wrong

Argument 2: Correct (but lack at explaining)

Argument 3: Correct

Argument 1 is wrong because it assumes they all happen with equal probability, which they don't.

Argument 3 is arguably the right one. Arguments 1 and 2 assume that their mentioned respective events are equally likely.

Was this problem perhaps my problem All That Glitters Is Gold?

The last argument is correct. In general for n numbers the probability is $\frac {{2}^{n-1}}{{2}^n} = \frac {1}{2}$

argument 3 feels more logical

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Argument 3 is perfect.

1\2

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Obviously universal space= 2^4 Sample space= 4C0+ 4C2+ 4C4= 8 So probability= 8/16 =1/2

let a(n) = P(Bin(n,0.5) is even), then a(n+1) = 0.5a(n) + (1-0.5)(1-a(n)) = 0.5

We have 2^{4} case. Odd sum is 2.\frac{4!}{3!}=2^{3} case. There for sum is odd with probability \frac{1}{2}

An even easier argument which is easily adapter to be generalisation for the number of: picking the first 3 numbers randomly, you'll find either an even or an uneven number. The last term will change it to either even or uneven, with an equal chance of either.

This will generalise to any number of variables easily, and also adapt to the odds of the result being k (mod n) if your variables can have values 1, 2, ... , n.

One problem it can't help with is: if the variables are binary, what are the odds of the result being a multiple of k (for a k greater than 2).

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The first arguement is wrong as each case doesnot have equal probability .. The second solution (though gives right answer ) is an insufficient one. ARGUEMENT 3is descent

Total number of cases = 222*2 Even cases are If number of ONEs is 2 or 4, So Favourable number of cases : 4P2 + 4P4 = 6 + 1 = 7 So Probability for odd is (16 - 7)/16 = 9/16

Argument 1 is incorrect because each case is not equally likely. Argument 2 gives the correct answer but for the wrong reason. Consider the probability of drawing the Ace of spades from a deck of cards. The card drawn is either the ace or it is not. One out of two cases is favourable hence 1/2. (?) Argument 3 would be correct if it was asserted that each case was equally probable. Which of course it is. J

The issue with the first argument is that of frequency distribution

now since every single variable counts and is equally important we should be going with the the third one .. ARGUMENT 3 is correct .... nearly similar way to solve is .. there are two possibilities:-

1.) - three variables are 1

2.)- only one variable is 1 .. both ways we get odd

hence- 4C3[ any three numbers] (1/2)^4[the probability of getting 1 is 1/2 and zero is also the same AND we need to get 1 in three cases AS WELL AS 0 in the other case] => 4C3 * (1/2)^4 +4C1[only one variable](1/2)^4 AND HENCE

4C3 * (1/2)^4 + 4C1 * (1/2)^4 = 1/2 ..

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