Survey: The Loaded Die!
Imagine that you have a loaded die (that’s the singular of ‘dice’). This means the die is biased. It’s not fair. If you roll it, the probability that you’ll get a is higher than the probability of getting any other number. You roll the die a few times and analyze the data.
Decide which of the following is more likely to happen:
Drop a comment below with your answer, and please do not explain your answer because I don’t want anyone to get influenced by other peoples’ comments. Just a simple or a will suffice.
I’m going to bed now and when I wake up the next day I hope to see a lot of comments! :)
Until then!
Note by
Mursalin Habib
6 years, 10 months ago
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Option 1: A
Upvote this comment if you think it is right.
Option 2: B
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Option B
I say A.
B
I see it's possible that both are equally likely to happen. But one option cannot be more likely than the other; it's either equally likely or less likely depending on the probability distribution.
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Why is that? If something is less likely to happen then something else, then that something else is more likely to happen than the first something.
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I mean one particular option cannot be more likely than the other one, not any one option cannot be more likely. Ambiguity; my bad.
B
Option A
@Mursalin Habib It has been a day!
A
Because apparently this one person's "day" meaning 15 days in real world, I decide to screw it and give my reasoning. Here, P(A),P(B),P(4) are probabilities of getting the sequence A, the sequence B, and the throw 4 in that order.
A is more likely. Note that P(B)=P(4)⋅P(A)≤1⋅P(A)=P(A), so the probability of getting B is less than or equal to A.