Wrong solution in Mathematical Fundamentals-->Probability-->Complements Page 5 ?

I'm a complete newbie here, so forgive me if this seems trivial to any of you, but the proposed solution to the quiz seems wrong to me. In short: It is stated that the probability of no rain in the next 3 days is 90%. The objective is to figure out the probability of rain tomorrow. The proposed solution is "Cannot be determined".

I did the following calculations: Let p(N) be the probability of no rain on a particular day. The complement is p(R) (rain on a particular day).

If the probability of no rain on 3 consecutive days is 0.9, then p(N)^3 = 0.9. <--> p(N) = 0.9^(1/3) = 0.96549 p(R) = 1 - 0.96549 = 0.03451

The only combinations of rainy vs non-rainy days with rain tomorrow are R-R-R, R-R-N, R-N-R, and R-N-N. Since we know the probabilities of rain and no rain on a particular day, we can calculate the probability of rain tomorrow:

p(rain tomorrow) = p(R-R-R) + p(R-R-N) + p(R-N-R) + p(R-N-N) = p(R)^3 + 2(p(R)^2 * p(N)) + p(R)p(N)^2 = 0.96549^3 + 2*(0.96549^2 * 0.03451) + (0.96549 * 0.03451^2) = 0.0345

So the probability of rain tomorrow should be 3.45%, or the same as the probability of rain on any particular day.

So, either I made a mistake or this calculation is invalid or the proposed answer that there is not enough information given to solve the problem is wrong (maybe what was meant is that with the information given in the pages leading up to this problem we couldn't solve this problem?). Can anyone confirm this or show me what I did wrong?

Note by MrRobin667Cc .
3 years, 3 months ago

No vote yet
1 vote

  Easy Math Editor

This discussion board is a place to discuss our Daily Challenges and the math and science related to those challenges. Explanations are more than just a solution — they should explain the steps and thinking strategies that you used to obtain the solution. Comments should further the discussion of math and science.

When posting on Brilliant:

  • Use the emojis to react to an explanation, whether you're congratulating a job well done , or just really confused .
  • Ask specific questions about the challenge or the steps in somebody's explanation. Well-posed questions can add a lot to the discussion, but posting "I don't understand!" doesn't help anyone.
  • Try to contribute something new to the discussion, whether it is an extension, generalization or other idea related to the challenge.
  • Stay on topic — we're all here to learn more about math and science, not to hear about your favorite get-rich-quick scheme or current world events.

MarkdownAppears as
*italics* or _italics_ italics
**bold** or __bold__ bold

- bulleted
- list

  • bulleted
  • list

1. numbered
2. list

  1. numbered
  2. list
Note: you must add a full line of space before and after lists for them to show up correctly
paragraph 1

paragraph 2

paragraph 1

paragraph 2

[example link](https://brilliant.org)example link
> This is a quote
This is a quote
    # I indented these lines
    # 4 spaces, and now they show
    # up as a code block.

    print "hello world"
# I indented these lines
# 4 spaces, and now they show
# up as a code block.

print "hello world"
MathAppears as
Remember to wrap math in \( ... \) or \[ ... \] to ensure proper formatting.
2 \times 3 2×3 2 \times 3
2^{34} 234 2^{34}
a_{i-1} ai1 a_{i-1}
\frac{2}{3} 23 \frac{2}{3}
\sqrt{2} 2 \sqrt{2}
\sum_{i=1}^3 i=13 \sum_{i=1}^3
\sin \theta sinθ \sin \theta
\boxed{123} 123 \boxed{123}

Comments

There are no comments in this discussion.

×

Problem Loading...

Note Loading...

Set Loading...