You and your two friends are playing a game where you each draw a random real number, r i , between 0 and 1. Call this your score. You win the game if you draw the largest score of all: max { r 1 , r 2 , r 3 }
In two of every three games, you lose the game. However, on the occasions you do win you tend to go big.
Assume that you and your two friends play this game long enough to collect accurate statistics. Out of all the occasions in which you win the game, what is your average score?
Assumptions
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Still not able to understand, Can someone explain in any better way?
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Exactly what are you not able to understand?
Why doenst ∫ 0 1 r p ( r ) gives the expected value already? Does it is cames from a conditional probability? P(X1>r|max(X2,X3) = r )
By the Law of Symmetry, the average is when r 1 , r 2 , r 3 divide the range of numbers equally. This is when r 1 = 0 . 2 5 , r 2 = 0 . 5 , and r 3 = 0 . 7 5 . We can also see from this method that the average value of the loser is 0 . 2 5 , and the average value of the remaining person is 0 . 5 .
The average is the same for all players so it is equal to the average of the winning value for all games. We calculate the latter. We consider the unit cube 0 ≤ r 1 ≤ 1 , 0 ≤ r 2 ≤ 1 , 0 ≤ r 3 ≤ 1 . Given 0 ≤ x ≤ 1 , the part of the unit cube where x = max ( r 1 , r 2 , r 3 ) is a surface of area 3 x 2 . The average is then ∫ 0 1 ( 3 x 2 ⋅ x ) d x = [ 3 4 x 4 ] 0 1 = 4 3 .
The average value is the integral ∫ 0 1 ∫ 0 1 ∫ 0 1 m a x ( x , y , z ) d x d y d z (divided by the volume of the unit cube, which is 1). By symmetry this is 3 times the integral over the region where z is the max. So we get 3 ∫ 0 1 ∫ 0 z ∫ 0 z z d x d y d z = 3 ∫ 0 1 z 3 d z = 3 / 4 .
The same proof shows that the average value for n friends is n + 1 n .
Letting r 0 = 0 , we are looking for E ( max { r 1 , r 2 , r 3 } ) = E ( M 0 ) where
M i = max j { r i − r j − ⌊ r i − r j ⌋ }
To complete the solution we need two observations:
First, E ( M 0 ) is unaffected by the value of r 0 . In particular, then, instead of r 0 = 0 we could assume that r 0 is chosen at random just like r 1 , r 2 , r 3 .
Second, M 0 + M 1 + M 2 + M 3 = 3 .
Together, these imply that E ( M 0 ) = E ( M 1 ) = E ( M 2 ) = E ( M 3 ) = 4 3 .
Can you explain M i = max j { r i − r j − ⌊ r i − r j ⌋ } and r 0 ?
M0+M1+M2+M3 = 3. i dont get anything from that. in fact i started feeling like im zero in this subject. Can u provide links where i could learn the basics on that and also explain it again in simplest way if possible. Thanks
I got the answer on the 3rd try, with no computation but pure logic, wow!
so the mean score of each player is 0.5 because I assumed the distribution is uniform. If I am to beat the two players my score would need to range between 0.5 to 1. In the long run, the average would be in between that range, and that is 0.75.
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My sense is that my average winning score will be (N/N+1) where N is the number of players. So, while .75 is in fact correct for 3 players (3/(3+1)), it would be different for 4 or 5 or more players...
thats how i solved. i dono frm whr do these get those formulas & Equations.
If I am to beat the two players my score would need to range between 0.5 to 1
What range would your score need to be in if you were only playing against one player?
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2/3 (or .666), no?
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@Josh Grotstein – Are you saying the average winning score would be 2/3 with two players or that the range (as Leo's argument goes) would be between 2/3 and 1?
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@Josh Silverman – The former: that the average winning score would be .666 (or 2/3) in the two player variant of the game.
Care to share?
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The average for all players must be same so lets calculate average for first player only. The probability that r 1 is greater than r 2 is r 1 because distributions are uniform. Similarly, probability that it is greater than r 3 is also r 1 . Hence the probability that it is greater than both of them is r 1 2 . Thus the density function in this case is:
p ( r ) = r 2
Hence the average value is given by:
< r > = ∫ 0 1 p ( r ) ∫ 0 1 r p ( r )
Note that in this case ∫ 0 1 p ( r ) = 1
This gives us A v e r a g e = 0 . 7 5