A simple tricky probability

Suppose A A and B B shoot independently until each hits his target.They have probabilities 3 5 a n d 5 7 \frac{3}{5} ~and~ \frac{5}{7} of hitting the targets at each shot. Find the probability that B B will require more shots than A A .

Plz help me out in this


The answer is 0.1935.

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3 solutions

They will need to both miss their first n n shots, where n n is a non-negative integer, after which A A hits his target and B B misses. Thus the probability will be

n = 0 [ ( 2 5 ) n ( 2 7 ) n ] ( 3 5 ) ( 2 7 ) = 1 1 4 35 6 35 = 6 31 = 0.194 \displaystyle\sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \left[\left(\dfrac{2}{5} \right)^{n} \left(\dfrac{2}{7} \right)^{n} \right] * \left(\dfrac{3}{5}\right) * \left(\dfrac{2}{7} \right) = \dfrac{1}{1 - \dfrac{4}{35}} * \dfrac{6}{35} = \dfrac{6}{31} = \boxed{0.194}

to 3 decimal places.

nice solution sir

Tanishq Varshney - 6 years, 2 months ago

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Thanks. Nice problem. :)

P.S.. I did notice the set of probability question you posted, but it looks like you already have plenty of good responses.

Brian Charlesworth - 6 years, 2 months ago

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sir ,its a request to plz post the solution to this Consider families with n n children and let A A be the event that a family has children both boys and girls and B B be the event that there is at most one girl in the family. Find the value of n n for which the event A A and B B are independent ,assuming that each child has probability 1 2 \frac{1}{2} of being a boy .

Tanishq Varshney - 6 years, 2 months ago

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@Tanishq Varshney I like Rohit Shah's method, but note that n = 1 n = 1 would also be a solution to his equation and to this problem. If it is assumed that n > 1 n \gt 1 then the unique solution would then indeed be 3. 3.

Brian Charlesworth - 6 years, 2 months ago

Ah, really nice way to simplify the event " B B will require more shots than A A " to " They will need to both miss their first shots after which A A hits his target and B B misses. "

Pawan Kumar - 6 years, 2 months ago

Ah!!I had the same thought but didn't write it and just saw the solution,lazy!

Adarsh Kumar - 6 years, 2 months ago
Ayush Agarwal
Apr 16, 2015

This is actually simpler than it seems. Using infinite probabilities:

p= 2/7 ( 3/5 + 2/5 * p) Solving this yields p=6/31.

Pawan Kumar
Mar 23, 2015

A rather tedious solution ... :-)

The case that " B B requires more shots than A A " will arise whenever B B hits target after missing n n shots whereas A hits the target in n n or lesser shots.

Let M a n H a = M I S S a . . . n M_a^nH_a = MISS_a ... n times . . . M I S S a H I T a ... MISS_a HIT_a (i.e. A A Misses the target n n times and Hits in the n + 1 n+1 shot).

For the event M b n H b M_b^nH_b ( n 1 n \geq 1 ), the corresponding events such that B B requires more shot than A A are:

H a , M a H a , . . . , M a n 1 H a H_a, M_aH_a, ..., M_a^{n-1}H_a (i.e. all the cases where A A hits in at most n n shots.)

The probability that B B hits in n + 1 n+1 shots and A A hits in at most n n shoots = =

P ( M b n H b ) × ( P ( H a ) + P ( M a H a ) + . . . + P ( M a n 1 H a ) = P(M_b^nH_b) \times (P(H_a) + P(M_aH_a) + ... + P(M_a^{n-1}H_a) =

( 2 7 ) n × 5 7 × ( 3 5 + 2 5 × 3 5 + ( 2 5 ) 2 × 3 5 + . . . + ( 2 5 ) n 1 × 3 5 ) \left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^n \times \dfrac{5}{7} \times \left( \dfrac{3}{5} + \dfrac{2}{5} \times \dfrac{3}{5} + \left(\dfrac{2}{5}\right)^2 \times \dfrac{3}{5} + ... + \left(\dfrac{2}{5}\right)^{n-1} \times \dfrac{3}{5} \right)

Probability that B B will require more shots than A A = =

n = 1 [ ( 2 7 ) n × 5 7 × ( 3 5 + 2 5 × 3 5 + ( 2 5 ) 2 × 3 5 + . . . + ( 2 5 ) n 1 × 3 5 ) ] = \displaystyle\sum_{n=1}^\infty \left[\left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^n \times \dfrac{5}{7} \times \left( \dfrac{3}{5} + \dfrac{2}{5} \times \dfrac{3}{5} + \left(\dfrac{2}{5}\right)^2 \times \dfrac{3}{5} + ... + \left(\dfrac{2}{5}\right)^{n-1} \times \dfrac{3}{5} \right) \right] =

3 7 × n = 1 [ ( 2 7 ) n × ( 1 + 2 5 + ( 2 5 ) 2 + . . . + ( 2 5 ) n 1 ) ] = \dfrac{3}{7} \times \displaystyle\sum_{n=1}^\infty \left[\left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^n \times \left( 1 + \dfrac{2}{5} + \left(\dfrac{2}{5}\right)^2 + ... + \left(\dfrac{2}{5}\right)^{n-1} \right) \right] =

3 7 × [ ( 2 7 + ( 2 7 ) 2 + . . . ) + 2 5 × ( ( 2 7 ) 2 + ( 2 7 ) 3 + . . . ) + ( 2 5 ) 2 × ( ( 2 7 ) 3 + ( 2 7 ) 4 + . . . ) ] = \dfrac{3}{7} \times \left[\left(\dfrac{2}{7} + \left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^2 + ...\right) + \dfrac{2}{5} \times \left( \left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^2 + \left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^3 + ... \right) + \left(\dfrac{2}{5}\right)^2 \times \left( \left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^3 + \left(\dfrac{2}{7}\right)^4 + ... \right) \right] =

3 7 × [ ( 2 5 ) + ( 2 7 ) × ( 2 5 ) 2 + ( 2 7 ) 2 × ( 2 5 ) 3 + ( 2 7 ) 3 × ( 2 5 ) 4 + . . . ] = \dfrac{3}{7} \times \left[\left(\dfrac{2}{5}\right) + \left( \dfrac{2}{7} \right) \times \left( \dfrac{2}{5} \right)^2 + \left( \dfrac{2}{7} \right)^2 \times \left( \dfrac{2}{5} \right)^3 + \left( \dfrac{2}{7} \right)^3 \times \left( \dfrac{2}{5} \right)^4 + ... \right] =

3 7 × ( 2 5 1 2 7 × 2 5 ) = 6 31 = 0.194 \dfrac{3}{7} \times \left( \dfrac{\frac{2}{5}}{1-\frac{2}{7} \times \frac{2}{5}} \right) = \dfrac{6}{31} = 0.194

nice logic

Shubham Maurya - 5 years, 10 months ago

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