Inspired By Nihar Mahajan

If a certain user has exactly 700 followers and a problem of his can be liked only by his followers with a chance of 0.5. Find the probability that his problem will get at least 3 likes.

The probability can be expressed as b c a b c \dfrac{{b}^{c}-a}{{b}^{c}} where a and b are coprime positive integers with b b prime.

Give your answer as a + b + c a+b+c .

Inspiration .


The answer is 246053.

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1 solution

Mehul Arora
Apr 21, 2015

We are going to find the answer to this problem By Subtracting the Probability of Getting Less Than 3 likes.

The Total Number of Outcomes Is 2 700 {2}^{700}

Probability that He Gets 2 likes is:-

The number of ways of arranging 2 2 likes and 698 698 no-likes is:-

700 ! 2 ! 698 ! = 350 699 = 244650 \dfrac{700!}{2!*698!} = 350*699 = 244650 Ways

Same way, The Ways off arranging 1 like and 699 no-likes is:-

700 ! 699 ! = 700 \dfrac{700!}{699!} = 700

Same way, the number of ways off arranging 0 0 likes and 700 700 non-likes is:- 1.

Adding We get, 245351.

So, Our answer is, 2 700 245351 2 700 \dfrac{{2}^{700}-245351}{{2}^{700}}

Thus, We get, a = 245351 , b = 2 and c = 700 a=245351,b=2 \quad \text{and} \quad c=700

Therefore, a + b + c = 246053 a+b+c=246053

Cheers!

Note:- if you spot any errors, Kindly Inform Me. I will clean it up ASAP.

Moderator note:

Yes, solving by complement is the quickest method.

You should mention that the probability of a (or any) user liking their post is 0.5.

Pi Han Goh - 6 years, 1 month ago

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Thanks! I will mention that! :)

Mehul Arora - 6 years, 1 month ago

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@Mehul Arora LOL! its level 2 now... :3 xD

Nihar Mahajan - 6 years, 1 month ago

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@Nihar Mahajan I know! -_- Should have been a Level 3 AT LEAST. Anyway, I am glad that It's popular now :3

Mehul Arora - 6 years, 1 month ago

@Nihar Mahajan Ya, gotta say, this problem is kinda underrated for 11% solvers

Trevor Arashiro - 6 years, 1 month ago

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@Trevor Arashiro Thanks! At least Someone Supports me here. -_-

Mehul Arora - 6 years, 1 month ago

Cheers! xD

Nihar Mahajan - 6 years, 1 month ago

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Cheers! @Nihar Mahajan

Mehul Arora - 6 years, 1 month ago

Crap!Made a silly mistake.BTW @Mehul Arora The value of b is ambiguous cause 4 and 245351 are also co-prime and similarly 8 and 245351 is also co-prime. Hence value of b can be 2,4,8............Please check it.

A Former Brilliant Member - 6 years, 1 month ago

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Hmm, Yeah. I should add b is a prime Number :P

Mehul Arora - 6 years, 1 month ago

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OK! Now it looks good and correct.BTW A good ques.

A Former Brilliant Member - 6 years, 1 month ago

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@A Former Brilliant Member Thanks Brother :) :)

Mehul Arora - 6 years, 1 month ago

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@Mehul Arora Similar ques by me given a long time ago wanna try

A Former Brilliant Member - 6 years, 1 month ago

I have made the Change! :)

Mehul Arora - 6 years, 1 month ago

Here's an almost generalized form for getting the probability of atleast x x likes with n n followers, and the added facts that 0 x n 0\leq x\leq n and the probability of the problem being liked by each follower is 0.5 0.5 . The generalization is as follows:

Let P n , x \mathcal{P}_{n,x} denote the required probability. Then,

P n , x = 1 i = 0 x 1 ( n i ) i = 0 n ( n i ) = 1 i = 0 x 1 ( n i ) 2 n \mathcal{P}_{n,x}=1-\frac{\displaystyle\sum_{i=0}^{x-1}\binom{n}{i}}{\displaystyle\sum_{i=0}^n\binom{n}{i}}=1-\frac{\displaystyle\sum_{i=0}^{x-1}\binom{n}{i}}{2^n}

Now, there is no closed form for the sum i = 0 x 1 ( n i ) \displaystyle\sum_{i=0}^{x-1}\binom{n}{i} . We just manually compute it for given x x .

Note: By convention, for x = 0 x=0 , we have i = 0 1 ( n i ) = 0 \displaystyle\sum_{i=0}^{-1}\binom{n}{i}=0

The idea behind this generalization is counting the number of p p- element (followers) subsets ( 0 p x ) (0\leq p\leq x) of the set of n n elements (set of all the followers) and then using the classical definition of probability along with method of finding probability by complement.


For the problem here, taking n = 700 n=700 and x = 3 x=3 gives us the following:

P 700 , 3 = 1 ( 700 0 ) + ( 700 1 ) + ( 700 2 ) 2 700 = 1 245351 2 700 = 2 700 245351 2 700 \mathcal{P}_{700,3}=1-\frac{\binom{700}{0}+\binom{700}{1}+\binom{700}{2}}{2^{700}}=1-\frac{245351}{2^{700}}=\frac{2^{700}-245351}{2^{700}}

The result follows from here.

Prasun Biswas - 6 years, 1 month ago

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