Point Path Probability

Consider a 25 × 25 25 \times 25 grid of city streets. Let S S be the points of intersection of the streets, and let P P be the set of paths from the bottom left corner to the top right corner of which consist of only walking to the right and up. A point s s is chosen uniformly at random from S S and then a path p p is chosen uniformly at random from P P . Over all ( s , p ) (s,p) pairs, the probability that the point s s is contained in the path p p can be expressed as a b \frac{a}{b} where a a and b b are coprime positive integers. What is the value of a + b a + b ?

Details and assumptions

There are 25 streets running in each direction, so S S consists of 625 intersections.


The answer is 674.

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14 solutions

Alex Yu
May 20, 2014

Let P |P| denote the number of paths in P P . Additionally, note that there are 25 × 25 = 625 25 \times 25 = 625 total points. Thus, since any pair ( s , p ) (s, p) is formed from an arbitrarily chosen s s and arbitrarily chosen p p , there are thus 625 × P 625 \times |P| total possible pairs.

To count the number of pairs ( s , p ) (s, p) such that s p s \in p , first note that any path must pass through the same number of points ( 25 25 points up and 24 24 across or 24 24 points up and 25 25 across depending on interpretation), which can be seen to be 25 + 24 = 49 25+24=49 points. Thus, for any arbitrarily chosen p p , there are 49 49 such s s such that s p s \in p . So for any pair ( s , p ) (s, p) where p p is fixed, there are thus 49 49 pairs satisfying the condition. Since this applies for any p P p \in P , there are thus a total of 49 × P 49 \times |P| pairs satisfying the condition.

The probability of picking a pair satisfying the condition is thus 49 P 625 P = 49 625 \frac{49|P|}{625|P|} = \frac{49}{625} So a = 49 a=49 , b = 625 b=625 and therefore the answer is a + b = 49 + 625 = 674 a+b =49+625= \boxed{674} .

imagine that you have 25 x 25 grid. maybe too big.

imagine that you have 4 x 4 or 5 x 5 or anysize of grid you think easy, then give any color that match the condition above, just go up and to the right. then it must be has path like n + (n-1).

after you know the pattern, let's calculate the path P with that pattern n. it must 25 + (25-1) = 49.

now we know about every path P that we choose randomly, it absolutely has 49 grid points on total of 625 grid points.

then very clear for me that the probability must 49/625.

so, a/b = 49/625 then a + b = 49 + 625 = 674

as you know, I'm not good to write anything like this. and I write this one because it doesn't cost so much time.

and sorry, I don't know so much about math formula, so I often use logical and imagination to solve many problem.

Hung Nguyen Le
May 20, 2014

We do have (the number of intersection points in ) / (the number of points in) which can be simply written as P / S There are 25 streets running in each direction, so we have S consists of 625 intersections. On the other hand, P contains other intersections, each one being either one step to the right or one step up from an adjacent intersection in P. There are 25 steps from the top to the bottom street , and 24 from the rightmost to the leftmost one ( or vice versa ) so P = 24 + 25 = 49

The probability is : P /S = a/b = 49/625 , so a+b= 674

Derek Khu
May 20, 2014

To get from the bottom left corner to the top right corner, each path needs to consist of exactly 24 24 moves rightwards and exactly 24 24 moves upwards. This means each path passes through exactly 49 49 intersections. There are thus 49 P ( s , p ) 49|P| \, (s,p) pairs such that s s is contained in p p . (Here, P |P| refers to the number of paths.) S S contains 25 × 25 = 625 25 \times 25 = 625 intersections, so there are 625 P ( s , p ) 625|P| \, (s,p) pairs. Since each pair will be chosen with uniform probability, then the probability that s s is contained in p p would be 49 P 625 P = 49 625 \dfrac{49|P|}{625|P|} = \frac{49}{625} . Our answer is thus 674 674 .

Fan Zhang
Dec 8, 2013

As the assumption states, there are 25 25 = 625 25*25 = 625 intersections in S S . Notice that there are always a total of 25 + 24 = 49 25 + 24 = 49 intersections in any paths from the bottom left to the top right corner. ( 25 25 ups and 25 25 right minus 1 1 double counted intersection.)

By first randomly choose any paths in P P with a probability of 1 1 , only 49 49 out of 625 625 intersections will be contained in that chosen path. Hence, the probability is just 49 625 \frac{49}{625} and a + b = 674 a+b = \boxed{674} .

Roihan Munajih
May 20, 2014

The number of points in set S S is 625 625 , and in each path that in the set P P there are 25 × 2 1 = 49 25 \times 2-1=49 points. So, the probability that the point s s is contained in the path p p is a b = 49 625 \frac{a}{b}=\frac{49}{625} . Hence, a + b = 49 + 625 = 674 a+b=49+625=674

David Fernandez
May 20, 2014

The question is equivalent to ask the probability that a given point from a set of 625 belongs to a path which crosses 49 points. Hence this probability is 49/625.

Thom Lu
Dec 17, 2013

There are ( 48 24 ) \binom{48}{24} elements in P P , and 2 5 2 = 625 25^2 = 625 elements in S S , for a total of 625 ( 48 25 ) 625\cdot\binom{48}{25} pairs ( s , p ) (s,p) . To find the number of pairs ( s , p ) (s,p) for which p p contains s s , note that each path contains exactly 49 intersection points, so there are 49 ( 48 24 ) 49\cdot\binom{48}{24} such pairs. So the probability is 49 ( 48 24 ) 625 ( 48 24 ) = 49 625 , \frac{49\cdot\binom{48}{24}}{625\cdot\binom{48}{24}} = \frac{49}{625}, and the answer is 49 + 625 = 674. 49+625 = 674.

Adit Mohan
Dec 23, 2013

all the paths will will include exactly one square of each diagonal lines going from top left to bottom right corners.
thus the sum of the paths passing through the points in a diagonal = total no of paths.
there will be 25 * 2-1 =49 such diagonals.
probability = (sum of number of paths through each point/total number of pats)/total no of paths.
=(49*total no. of paths/total no. of paths)/625.
=49/625.
thus answer = 49+625 = 674





Priyanka Banerjee
Dec 10, 2013

To go from the bottom right to top left we need to take 49 steps (anyhow)

Total number of points is 625

Probablity is 49/625

Answer:: 674

Nicola Mignoni
Apr 27, 2018

Let's consider the 25 × 25 25 \times 25 gird in the x y xy plane. Starting point has coordinate ( 0 , 0 ) (0,0) while the ending point ( 25 , 25 ) (25,25) . The number of all possible paths is

P = ( 24 + 24 24 ) \displaystyle |P|=\binom{24+24}{24}

and all points on the grid are

S = 2 5 2 |S|=25^{2} .

Let's consider a generic point s = ( h , k ) , 0 h 24 , 0 k 24 s=(h,k), \hspace{8pt} 0 \leq h \leq 24, \hspace{8pt} 0 \leq k \leq 24 . The number of paths P [ ( h , k ) ] P[(h,k)] passing through ( h , k ) (h,k) is

P ( s ) = ( h + k h ) ( 24 h + 24 k 24 h ) \displaystyle |P(s)|=\binom{h+k}{h} \binom{24-h+24-k}{24-h} .

So, the probability of ( s , p ( s ) ) (s,p(s)) is

P [ ( s , p ( s ) ) ] = [ 2 5 2 ( 48 24 ) ] 1 h = 0 24 k = 0 24 ( h + k h ) ( 24 h + 24 k 24 h ) = 49 625 = a b \displaystyle \mathbb{P}[(s,p(s))]=\bigg[25^2 \binom{48}{24}\bigg]^{-1} \sum_{h=0}^{24} \sum_{k=0}^{24} \binom{h+k}{h} \binom{24-h+24-k}{24-h}=\frac{49}{625}=\frac{a}{b}

Eventually

a + b = 674 a+b=\boxed{674}

I intentionally chose 25 so that the number is "too large" to compute by hand, which hopefully encourages thinking of it from another angle.

Check out the other solutions. They provide a "reinterpretation" of the problem statement which makes it much easier to arrive at the answer.

Calvin Lin Staff - 3 years, 1 month ago

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Yes, I just had a look at those. I see that I've made it too complicated, I didn't notice at first that was way easier.

Nicola Mignoni - 3 years, 1 month ago

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That's the beauty of understanding the concepts, which opens up different ways for you to think about how to approach the problem. IE In this case, we could consider it as "find the exact number of paths and points", or we could consider it as "How can we group things so that the calculation is easier"?

As an example, try answering the question of "What is the average value of ( x + y ) (x+y) for a randomly selected grid point on one of these ( 48 25 ) { 48 \choose 25 } paths?"
Hint: There is a one-line answer.

Calvin Lin Staff - 3 years, 1 month ago

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@Calvin Lin For a 3 × 3 3 \times 3 grid, x + y x+y is represented by [ 2 3 4 1 2 3 0 1 2 ] \begin{bmatrix} 2 & 3 & 4 \\ 1 & 2 & 3 \\ 0 & 1 & 2 \end{bmatrix} , so the average is 2 2 . For a 25 × 25 25 \times 25 grid should be 24 24 . Is it correct?

Nicola Mignoni - 3 years, 1 month ago

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@Nicola Mignoni Yes. Now figure out a one-line proof of that. :)

Calvin Lin Staff - 3 years, 1 month ago
Eugene Kasilag
May 20, 2014

The probability of choosing a point s at random from a 25 x 25 grid can be expressed as 1/625. The probability of choosing a path p at random from P can be expressed as 1/49. Dividing 1/625 by 1/49 shows the probability that the point we randomly chose from S is on the set of paths P. This leads to 49/625. a=49 b=625 a+b=674

Pratik Mishra
Dec 13, 2013

let it be a N X N grid. clearly there are N^2 intersections. Now, in order to travel from the bottom left corner to the top right corner, we have to travel N-1 units to the right and N-1 units upwards. In moving one unit right or up , we gain one intersection. thus in the whole process, intersections covered = 2(N-1) +1(the bottom left corner from where we started). = 2N-1 thus probability = 2N-1/N^2 in this case, N=25. so probability = 49/625. 49+625=674.

Sumit Goel
Dec 9, 2013

For every path there are 49 points that lie in the path

Therefore probability=(49 * 50C25)/(625 * 50C25)=49/625

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