Probability of real life situations

In competitive examinations that are given by a large number of people, (for example the JEE MAINS) in which many people getting the same score on the examination, there often arises a need for further ranking of the students. Usually the next data that is checked is their marks in a particular section.

Let's find the probability that two people are tied in their total marks, and also in the most important section. In the JEE, the most important section is Maths, followed by Physics and Chemistry.

The exam is has a total of 30 marks, with 3 sections namely physics, chemistry, maths, each worth 10 marks. Candidates A and B are sitting for this exam. Assume that in each section, their score is uniformly distributed over the integers 0 to 10 (inclusive).

The probability that A and B get the same total marks as well as same marks in the maths section is given by:

P = ( a b ) c P={ \left(\dfrac { a }{ b } \right) }^{ c }

Find a + b + c a+b+c

Details and Assumptions :

  • a , b , c a,b,c are positive integers with 1 < a < b < 15 1<a<b<15 and gcd ( a , b ) = 1 \gcd(a,b)=1

  • We have no idea of the intelligence of A and B hence we make the simplifying assumption that the total marks as well the marks they get in each section is totally random, i.e. they are equally likely to score 0, 5, or 10.


The answer is 18.

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1 solution

Ronak Agarwal
Dec 8, 2014

I will be solving this question by calculating total number of outcomes and number of favourable outcomes and dividing them to get the answer.

Total number of ways is clearly 1 1 6 11^{6} , since there are total 11 11 ways to select marks in each section of A A as well as B B .

C a l c u l a t i n g t o t a l n u m b e r o f f a v o u r a b l e o u t c o m e s Calculating\quad total\quad number\quad of\quad favourable\quad outcomes

We firstly consider number of ways marks of maths can be seleted that is common to both A A and B B and that is = 11 =11

Since their total marks are same hence we can conclude that the sum of physics and chemistry section of both A A and B B are same.

Now we will be counting the number of outcomes of selecting physics and chemistry

Sum of physics and chemistry section for both A A and B B can vary from 0 0 to 20 20

For the sum I will take two cases.

Case-1

Consider the sum to be k k where , 0 k 10 0 \le k \le10 .

Then total number of ways for A A is equal to :

No. of non-negative integral solution of x 1 + x 2 = k {x}_{1}+{x}_{2}=k , that is equal to k + 1 k+1

And same number of ways exist for B and hence total number of ways = ( k + 1 ) 2 = (k+1)^{2}

Vary k k from 0 0 to 10 10 and total number of ways S 1 = k = 0 10 ( k + 1 ) 2 = k = 1 11 k 2 \displaystyle {S}_{1}=\sum _{ k=0 }^{ 10 }{ { (k+1) }^{ 2 } }=\sum _{ k=1 }^{ 11 }{ { k }^{ 2 } }

Case-2

For any k k , 11 k 20 11 \le k \le 20 , we have for any case total number of ways for A A as :

No. of solutions of x 1 + x 2 = k {x}_{1}+{x}_{2}=k where 0 x 1 , x 2 10 0 \le {x}_{1},{x}_{2} \le 10

and that is equal to 21 k 21-k , that you can check for yourself.

And same number of ways exist for B B hence the total ways is ( 21 k ) 2 {(21-k)}^{2}

Vary k k from 11 11 to 20 20 and you get the total number of ways as = k = 11 20 ( 21 k ) 2 = k = 1 10 k 2 =\displaystyle \sum _{ k=11 }^{ 20 }{ { (21-k) }^{ 2 } } =\sum _{ k=1 }^{ 10 }{ { k }^{ 2 } }

Finally total number of ways of selecting physics and chemistry is given by :

= k = 1 11 k 2 + k = 1 10 k 2 = ( 11 ) × ( 81 ) =\displaystyle \sum _{ k=1 }^{ 11 }{ { k }^{ 2 } } +\sum _{ k=1 }^{ 10 }{ { k }^{ 2 } }=(11) \times (81)

So total number of favourable outcomes is equal to :

= 11 2 × 81 ={11}^{2} \times 81

And our probability is = 81 11 4 = ( 3 11 ) 4 =\dfrac { 81 }{ { 11 }^{ 4 } } ={ \left(\dfrac { 3 }{ 11 } \right) }^{ 4 }

a = 3 , b = 11 , c = 4 , a + b + c = 18 a=3 , b=11 , c=4 , a+b+c=18

I don't like the assumption of "total marks in each section is totally random" is a reasonable assumption, since that implies that someone is equally likely to score 0, as he is to score 5, or 10.

I think a better assumption would be "get a problem right with probability x a x_a ", could be an improvement to the model.

Calvin Lin Staff - 6 years, 6 months ago

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Yes I indeed want to imply that he is equally likely to score 0 as he is to score 5 or 10 , since we don't know how good they know the subject , they can be very dumb scoring 0 in the examination or very intelligent scoring 10 in each section.

The randomness arises from the fact that we don't know about them.

I know it's a weird assumption but still I believe it's not technically wrong . What do you think @Calvin Lin Sir.

Ronak Agarwal - 6 years, 6 months ago

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As mentioned, I think that a better distribution would be a Binomial distribution, where he gets a problem correct with probability p p .

This more accurately reflects how people do, and that scores tend to be bunched in one area, as opposed to being evenly spread out.

Calvin Lin Staff - 6 years, 6 months ago

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@Calvin Lin Yes , agreed.

Ronak Agarwal - 6 years, 6 months ago

Same as I need!! Most important thing I learn was the order of importance in JEE which would be helpful in upcoming JEE for me!

Pranjal Jain - 6 years, 6 months ago

Why we need chemistry and phisics. There is possible 0-10 marks for math and 0-20 for rest,so that is 11x11x21x21 possibilities,and when math marks are equal(11cases) we have 21 cases when rest is equal.So my answer was (11x21)/(11x11x21x21)=1/231

Nikola Djuric - 6 years, 6 months ago

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Think about dice rolls. Rolling a single die is a completely random event. However, the sum of 2 dice rolls is no longer a random event.

The error that you made is thinking that "0-20 for rest" is still randomly distributed over the 21 outcomes, just because "the marks they get in each section is random".

However, the sum of marks in different sections is not random. We have P(physics + chem = 1) \neq P ( physics +chem = 2).

Calvin Lin Staff - 6 years, 6 months ago

Nicely done! Exploiting the symmetry in the probability made this question really great. And the answer too is in such beautiful form! Almost makes me wonder if there is an easier way to do it.

Raghav Vaidyanathan - 6 years, 2 months ago

Let A score a random set P, C, and M of marks. There exists a unique case of marks for B for the event to be favorable. Also, the total number of ways in which B could have scored is 11^3. The probability should hence be (1/11)^3.

Please correct me with an explanation if I'm wrong. Thanks

Saket Joshi - 6 years, 5 months ago

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You assume equal distribution of the physics and chemistry marks which is incorrect

Suhas Sheikh - 3 years ago

Almost the same method as mine !! :)

Aniket Sanghi - 4 years, 9 months ago

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