Problem 5

A fair coin is tossed 9 9 times. The probability that at least 5 5 consecutive head occurs

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The answer is 0.09375.

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2 solutions

Curtis Clement
Mar 7, 2015

For 5 consecutive heads, if you start with a head then there is a probability of success of 1 2 \frac{1}{2} each time, but you also need a tail next to avoid falling into the 6 consecutive heads group. You also need to consider that if you don't start or end with a heads then you must get a tail just before and just after the 5 consecutive heads. Using this principle with casework (grouping): P ( 5 c o n s e c u t i v e h e a d s ) = 2 ( 1 2 6 ) + 3 ( 1 2 7 ) = 1 2 5 + 3 ( 1 2 7 ) \large \ P(5 \ consecutive \ heads ) = 2(\frac{1}{2^6}) +3(\frac{1}{2^7}) = \frac{1}{2^5} +3(\frac{1}{2^7}) P ( 6 c o n s e c u t i v e h e a d s ) = 2 ( 1 2 7 + 1 2 8 ) = 1 2 6 + 1 2 7 \large \ P(6 \ consecutive \ heads ) = 2(\frac{1}{2^7} +\frac{1}{2^8}) = \frac{1}{2^6} + \frac{1}{2^7} P ( 7 c o n s e c u t i v e h e a d s ) = 2 ( 1 2 8 ) + 1 2 9 = 1 2 7 + 1 2 9 \large \ P(7 \ consecutive \ heads ) = 2(\frac{1}{2^8}) + \frac{1}{2^9} = \frac{1}{2^7} + \frac{1}{2^9} P ( 8 c o n s e c u t i v e h e a d s ) = 2 ( 1 2 9 ) = 1 2 8 \large \ P(8 \ consecutive \ heads ) = 2(\frac{1}{2^9})= \frac{1}{2^8} P ( 9 c o n s e c u t i v e h e a d s ) = 1 2 9 \large \ P(9 \ consecutive \ heads) = \frac{1}{2^9} Adding these together gives: P ( 5 c o n s e c u t i v e h e a d s ) = 3 32 \therefore\huge\color{#3D99F6}{\ P( \geq\ 5 \ consecutive \ heads ) = \boxed{\frac{3}{32}}}

Nice solution Curtis sir , upvoted

Utkarsh Bansal - 6 years, 3 months ago
Tanishq Varshney
Mar 7, 2015

4 × 1 2 5 × 1 2 + 1 2 5 4\times \frac{1}{2^5}\times \frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{2^5}

= 3 32 \frac{3}{32}

I think that it'd be nice if you could add that you have used Binomial Distribution and something else :)

No hurry ! Do it after Thursday ,perhaps .

A Former Brilliant Member - 6 years, 3 months ago

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He has not used any such high-fi stuff i believe, atleast i have not, this problem did not require it,

heres what i did, Let me keep throwing coins and stop when i get 5 in a row,

let the probability for getting 5 coins in a row be P k P_k then P k = 0 P_k = 0 for all k ϵ [ 1 , 4 ] k \epsilon [1,4] obviously, Now P 5 P_5 = 1 2 5 \frac {1}{2^{5}}

for P 6 P_6 onwards, we have to ensure not only that 5 times heads in a row but also that there are no overlaps with previous ones, since in 9 , only two times 5 in a row can happen, we simply need to make sure that we get 5 heads in a row and the one adjacent to the toss where the series began, we must have a tail

so P k = 1 2 6 P_k = \frac {1}{2^{6}} for k ϵ [ 6 , 9 ] k \epsilon [6,9] and hence answer is

1 2 5 + 4 1 2 6 \frac {1}{2^5} + 4 \frac {1}{2^6}

Mvs Saketh - 6 years, 3 months ago

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Haha, I never said anything about hi fi stuff ! I just asked him to make sure his solution was complete by adding a few lines for those who don't know :)

A Former Brilliant Member - 6 years, 3 months ago

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@A Former Brilliant Member ah gotcha :)

Mvs Saketh - 6 years, 3 months ago

@A Former Brilliant Member Can u plz help me in solving this

Tanishq Varshney - 6 years, 3 months ago

Nice solution Saketh ,upvoted

Utkarsh Bansal - 6 years, 3 months ago

sorry i don't get it > < what do you mean by no overlapping? i agree that the one adjacent to the toss where the series began, we must have a tail,but then there are 2 next to it?(one before and one behind ) coz your method seems really concise i wanna understand it

Yunhao King - 6 years, 3 months ago

Yes Azhaghu Sir I agree with you

Utkarsh Bansal - 6 years, 3 months ago

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