Single coin toss

How many times, on average, do you need to toss a single unbiased coin to get 5 times 'heads' in a row?

Let's say we play a game where you toss a coin and for every toss you pay me $1. Once you manage to toss 5 times 'heads' in a row, I give you X amount of dollars. What does X need to be for this game to be a break-even game?

32 36 62 64

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2 solutions

Mark Hennings
Nov 10, 2018

Let X n X_n be the expected number of additional tosses until you get a "streak" of N N Heads, given that you have a current "streak" of n n Heads. Conditioning on the next toss, we have X n = 1 + 1 2 X 0 + 1 2 X n + 1 0 n N 1 X_n \; = \; 1 + \tfrac12X_0 + \tfrac12X_{n+1} \hspace{2cm} 0 \le n \le N-1 and we know that X N = 0 X_N = 0 . Solving these equations, we obtain that X n = 2 N + 1 2 n + 1 0 n N X_n \; = \; 2^{N+1} - 2^{n+1} \hspace{2cm} 0 \le n \le N and so the expected number of tosses to get a "streak" of N N heads is 2 N + 1 2 2^{N+1}-2 . For this problem, N = 5 N=5 , so the answer is 62 \boxed{62} .

Ivan D
Nov 10, 2018

With this problem it is important to distinguish between 'tosses' and 'trials'. For example if you throw HHT, it is basically one trial, but 3 tosses. You need on average 2^5 = 32 trials, but it is not how many actual tosses you need. If you tossed 5 coins at once, you would, on average, need 32 tosses to throw 5 'heads'. But here we have one coin only.

I had no idea how to approach this problem in the beginning. I only knew I have to figure out how many tosses is the average trial. I finally decided to work backwards. I ran a computer simulation and it turned out I need on average 62 throws. So, the average trial requires 1.9375 tosses. After getting some help from a friend, we figured out the solution is 2^5 * (1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/16) Likewise for 7 'heads' in a row, you would need 2^7 * (1 + 1/2 + 1/4 + 1/8 + 1/16 + 1/32 + 1/64) tosses

So, is the answer 62 or 64?

You explained 62 but 64 is marked as correct

Henry U - 2 years, 7 months ago

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Oh, dang. The answer is 62, I must have made a mistake. Trying to correct it now, but it won't let me edit the multiple choice answer - only the problem itself and the title. Does anyone know how to fix this?

Ivan D - 2 years, 7 months ago

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You can write to the staff by putting @ and then one of their names, for example

@Eli Ross , could you please change the correct answer from 64 to 62 ? Thanks!

Henry U - 2 years, 7 months ago

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@Henry U Been done already. Thanks!

Ivan D - 2 years, 7 months ago

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