How many times, on average, do you need to toss a single unbiased coin to get 5 times 'heads' in a row?
Let's say we play a game where you toss a coin and for every toss you pay me $1. Once you manage to toss 5 times 'heads' in a row, I give you X amount of dollars. What does X need to be for this game to be a break-even game?
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Let X n be the expected number of additional tosses until you get a "streak" of N Heads, given that you have a current "streak" of n Heads. Conditioning on the next toss, we have X n = 1 + 2 1 X 0 + 2 1 X n + 1 0 ≤ n ≤ N − 1 and we know that X N = 0 . Solving these equations, we obtain that X n = 2 N + 1 − 2 n + 1 0 ≤ n ≤ N and so the expected number of tosses to get a "streak" of N heads is 2 N + 1 − 2 . For this problem, N = 5 , so the answer is 6 2 .