Statistical Interpretation 1

Probability Level 1

An unbiased, representative survey of the citizens of a country finds that 60% of them favor Candidate A over Candidate B in an upcoming election. Does this mean that exactly 60% of all citizens of the country favor Candidate A over Candidate B?

Yes No

2 solutions

Mohammad Khaza
Feb 7, 2018

a survey is done among-st few people chosen randomly.so,there is a big chance that most of the the people included in the survey were accidentally same thinkers.

example---before USA's election most of the survey brought negative result for Trump.but it didn't happen.

Why most people included in survey chosen are same accidently same thinkers ? Is this implied from term "representative" in question ? If people are chosen at random without replacement then an accurate distribution of how people will vote should be generated.

Adrian Ronayne - 3 years, 4 months ago

ok,i agree with your last point.but a survey is done amongst very few people in comparison to the whole country.

now,suppose,if all of them are unbiased,then we are getting an accurate result.but that doesn't mean all the people of that country is unbiased.if these types of 7-8 survey is done.surely-we will get different results though people are chosen randomly.

secondly---you will always get different result if you do the same survey in different states though you choose people randomly from that state.

thirdly--a survey is done by different categories of people.but generally most of them is literate and concern about politics or etc...but in every country there are lots of uneducated people whose choice can be changed at any time ........

so,a survey is not an sure result how much unbiased it is or not.

Mohammad Khaza - 3 years, 4 months ago

Thanks. I'm just questioning this line "big chance that most of the the people included in the survey were accidentally same thinkers" Where does "big chance" originate ? is there some prior knowledge about the biases of the people in survey ?

Adrian Ronayne - 3 years, 3 months ago

@Adrian Ronayne – suppose,you kept 50 marbles--10 red,10 blues,10 greens,10yellows ,10 blacks in somewhere.

now, if you blind fold yourself and take 5 marbles from there--what do you think?---you will get 5 types of marbles in your hand?

no?there is very less chance to get that.

rather than,you will get 2-3 or most probably 4 types of marbles.

that means--a random survey never gives a solid result.and so--"big chance that most of the the people included in the survey were accidentally same thinkers"---i used that .

if you want further discussion on it,don't hesitate.

Mohammad Khaza - 3 years, 3 months ago

Chris Schaffer
Apr 25, 2019

i think this is more a question of one’s skepticism torwards bias than math.

Statistical Interpretation 1

2 solutions

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