The Math Of Broken iPhones

In an iPhone, there are numerous crucial components like a circuit board, an antenna, a liquid crystal display (LCD), and a battery. Over time, these components will experience wear and tear, and the iPhone will start to malfunction if any of them fail. In this event, you would not know which component had failed, or even the number of components that failed. You can only reboot your phone and hope for the best.

If the iPhone has 20 crucial components, each of which independently has a 0.1 % 0.1 \% chance of failing within the first year after purchase, what is the percentage chance (in %) that the iPhone will malfunction in the first year?

Feel free to use a calculator, and round your answer to the nearest integer.

Image credit: Gary Booth
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37 solutions

There're 20 parts that have 99.9 % = 999 1000 99.9\% = \frac{999}{1000} chance of not failing.

We'll find by using

P(Failing) = P(Total chance) - P(Not failing) = 1 - P(Not failing)

The chance that it will not fail = ( 999 1000 ) 20 (\frac{999}{1000})^{20} .

Therefore, P(Failing) = 1 - ( 999 1000 ) 20 (\frac{999}{1000})^{20} = 0.0198111351705. 2 \boxed{ 2 } ... *Fail, can't type %

Since there are 20 individual parts, at most all the parts can malfunction. So, 0.1% is the probability of any individual part for it to malfunction. Therefore, the required probability = 0.1 x 20 = 2%.

Abhirup Borah - 7 years, 5 months ago

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i did the same thing and its also the easiest one

vedika aggarwal - 7 years, 4 months ago

Same

Waqar Memon - 7 years, 5 months ago

Read the incorrect solution from Raj, and you'll see why this is wrong.

Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi - 7 years, 5 months ago

but if you multiply 0.1 x 20? the answer is also 20? how do we get 2% the answer in that situation? what did you do?

Francisco Colete - 7 years, 4 months ago

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its 2 when 0.1 is multiplied to 20 because itis only 1 digit decimal or tenths

Carl De Guzman - 7 years, 2 months ago

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@Carl De Guzman t intelligent jaimerai etre a ta place

ibovitch bbj - 7 years ago

Oops, 99.9%, not just 99.9.

Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi - 7 years, 5 months ago

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How to solve this question: If the iphone does not fail in the first year, what is the probability that it will or will not fail in second year? What data is needed for this? Please discuss

Jagatpreet Singh - 7 years, 5 months ago

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You know that it won't fail in the first year. The probability is still the same, right? It's like you know it happens, the probability is 1. Multiplying by 1 is always the same.

If you don't know that, the probability that it will not fail is ( 999 1000 ) 20 N (\frac{999}{1000})^{20N} where N N is the number of years.

Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi - 7 years, 5 months ago

You could use Bayes Theorem to solve this.

Look it up online for more details.

Tristan Shin - 7 years, 5 months ago

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@Tristan Shin If he knows that it doesn't fail in the 1st year, then why do we think about that?

Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi - 7 years, 5 months ago

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@Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi Bayes Theorem shows the probability of something happening given another thing. The other thing in this case is represented by a percentage, which affects the result. Therefore, the answer to this problem is not the same as the original problem.

Tristan Shin - 7 years, 5 months ago

hmm. lets see if they will ask for the second year than they will give the malfunctioning of the component for second year also so in that case we have to include both 1st -> the phone will not malfunction in frst year * it will malfunction on second year. than we have to add to the all the possiblities. post the question if you have any i will better sort it out

vikalp jain - 7 years, 5 months ago

I see that I have got a problem in my solution although rounding that off gives the same. I did it using Binomial theorem saying that the iPhone will malfunction if 1,2,......,20 components fail.Thus as the probability of the failing of one component is 0.001 thus the equation becomes

20C1(0.001^1)+20C2(0.001^2)+........+20C20(0.001^20)

which is ((1+0.001)^20)-20C0

this multiplied by 100 should give the answer which I got to be

2.019114486 Please point out the mistake .........

Priyanka Banerjee - 7 years, 5 months ago

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Actually the exact calculation yield a probability just less than 2%. The mistake in your calculation is Let r components fail and (20-r ) components donot. so as per binomial , the probability(P r) of failure is 20Cr * (.001)^r*(.999)^(20-r). you did not consider the probability of remaining components that did not fail and took it as 1. you will get your answer when you will summate the above (P r) from 1 -20. This is automatically equal to 1- 20C0*.999^20 which is the direct way of calculating (1- probability(the phone does not fail)).

Jagatpreet Singh - 7 years, 5 months ago

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One more thing the small difference in answer have given you the correct answer of 2%. But for apple company, this would matter a lot. Consider they are manufacturing 10 crore phones ( just to say). so here they have to prepare themselves for about 19 thousand more phones that will fail. They have to keep their inventory which will be 20*19000. This could be a huge cost to apple. This is just a simple model. Actually the reliability, a probability time dependent function, of phone is also measured to minimise even this risk.

Jagatpreet Singh - 7 years, 5 months ago

how to insert an image in a question

Daniel Lim - 7 years, 5 months ago

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! [alt text] (http://..... "Title")

Remove spacebars between ! and brackets

"title" is optional.

Check this one , it might help you.

Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi - 7 years, 5 months ago

look how i solved it, 1 component=0.15% chance of failure 20 components =20/1*0.1 [using the unitary method] which gave me 2

Isaiah Ejakpovi - 7 years, 5 months ago

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Read the incorrect solution from Raj, and you'll see why this is wrong.

Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi - 7 years, 4 months ago

how do we get the answer 2, if 999 is divided to 1000 in closed parenthesis 20? what did you possible do on that?

Francisco Colete - 7 years, 4 months ago

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The 1st part has 999/1000 chance of not failing.

The 2nd part also has 999/1000 chance of not failing.

................

The 20th part also has 999/1000 chance of not failing.

Therefore, the chance of not failing is 999/1000 * 999/1000 * ... * 999/1000 (20 times) = (999/1000)^20.

Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi - 7 years, 4 months ago

each of the parts has 0.1% chance. so for 20 together, 0.1 X 20 = 2%

prasad y - 7 years, 4 months ago

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Read the incorrect solution from Raj, and you'll see why this is wrong.

Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi - 7 years, 4 months ago

0.1*20=2 therefore 2%

mastan nadaf - 7 years, 4 months ago

Oh gosh these wrong solutions made me mad mad mad. fffffffuuuuuuuuu

READ THE WRONG SOLUTION FROM RAJ BELOW MINE and you'll see WHY THIS SOLUTION YOU SAY IS WRONG.

Please please please don't make me insane. I beg you all lol.

Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi - 7 years, 4 months ago

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God dammit lol I'm mad right now.

Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi - 7 years, 3 months ago

we have 4 major components as provided in question .... so we will calculate the total % of them to be failed i.e. 0.4% then well find total % of them failing as 0.4/20 x 100 = 2

hemant sharma - 7 years, 4 months ago

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I think you read the question wrong, and your solution is actually wrong. Everyone is commenting a wrong solution in my solution. I'm really mad right now. XD

Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi - 7 years, 4 months ago

%

Himanshu Gupta - 7 years, 4 months ago

I am followed = 0.1 x 20 = 2%.

Dhammapal sonal - 7 years, 4 months ago
Carl Denton
Jan 7, 2014

We write all possibilities as a binomial expansion: ( S + F ) 20 = 1 (S + F)^{20} = 1 , where S is the chance for success and F is the chance for failure. Expanding, we have S 20 + . . . = 1 S^{20} + ... = 1 . All of the omitted terms contain at least one failure, so this is equivalent to writing S 20 + P = 1 S^{20} + P = 1 , where P is the chance of a failure. Thus P = 1 S 20 = 1 . 99 9 20 = . 0198 P = 1 - S^{20} = 1 - .999^{20} = .0198 , which we round to 2%.

i too thought of that... :)

Anant Kumar Singh - 7 years, 5 months ago
Leif Segen
Jan 7, 2014

One might have an inclination to multiply 0.1% × \times 0.1% × \times 0.1% ... 20 times. However, this would actually be the probability of all 20 components failing in one year.

Instead, we need to find the complement of the case of none of the components breaking.

To begin, we acknowledge that there is a 99.9% chance that a single component does not break during the first year. (100% - 0.1% = 99.9%)

Next, to find out the probability of none of the components breaking in the first year, we find 99.9% 20 ^{20} : 0.999 20 ^{20} = 0.980...

Finally, to find out the chance of at least one component breaking we subtract this from 100%: 100% - 98% = 2%

a good answer

Anant Kumar Singh - 7 years, 5 months ago

The chance for the components of iPhones to function properly in its first year is 0.999 (1.0-0.001=0.999).

Since the 20 components are independent, we multiply 0.999 by 0.999 20 times, i.e. (0.999)^20 to compute for the chance of the overall system (since it is a series circuit).

(0.999^20 = 0.9801888648)

Thus, the chance for the iPhone to function properly is approximately 98%. Accordingly, the chance for the iPhone to fail is 2%.

Hence, the answer is 2. :)

Pola Forest
Mar 21, 2014

0.1% times 20 (there are 20 crucial parts) = 2%

Paresh Wadhel
Mar 14, 2014

there are 20 components. So, 20 *0.1= 2%.

Vinay Myakala
Mar 9, 2014

0.1*20=2

(0.1%)x 20 = 2% so in that case the answer will be 2%

Ephraim Raj
Mar 2, 2014

HERES SOMETHING WHICH BEGINNERS WOULD LOVE http://www.mathsisfun.com/combinatorics/combinations-permutations.html

Rajnish Raipure
Feb 27, 2014

Each component have the probability of failing in one year is 0.1%. There are such 20 components. So just simply add all their probabilities. The ans is 2

PrithiPal Singh
Feb 18, 2014

Chance of failing of one component = 0.1% = 1/100 (converted percent to fraction).Now, there are 20 components. let's assume that all component failed and chances of failing of all 20 components is 20 * (1/100) = 1/50 or 0.02. multiplying by hundred we get 2% that's the answer.

Hunain Aleem
Feb 16, 2014

20 components x 0.1 = 2 percent

Ajith Gade
Jan 25, 2014

if any one component fails i phone will be failed if 2 components failed i phone will be failed .... so on then probability to fail is p= 20c1 0.1/100 + 20c2 0.1/100+......so on % chance to be failed is p*100=2.019 nearly 2

Moazam Tariq
Jan 22, 2014

0.1/100 = 0.001 0.001 20= 0.02 0.02 100=2

Anrie Sahadewo
Jan 21, 2014

20x0.1=2%

Rashid Adeel
Jan 21, 2014

20*0.1=2

since each component has a independent failure chance of 0.1% ,i phone has 20 crucial components , 20*0.1=2,i.e 2% is chance of iPhone will malfunction in the first year.

Nicholas Wei
Jan 19, 2014

0.1% x 20 = 2%

It is very simple..... I phone malfunctions when any one part does not work. so selecting at least one piece out of 20 is 20C1. now the chances of the part getting damaged is 1/10 times.... thus the chance for the phone getting damaged is 20C1 (1/10). it is equal to 20 .1=2 **Here C represents Combination

Shri Sowmyaa
Jan 18, 2014

20 crucial components, 0.1% of chance to malfunction for each component. Then divide 20 by 0.1. It gives you 2.0. That is 2%.

I owe an apology, mustn't divide but to multiply 20 and 0.1. So we get 2%.

shri sowmyaa - 7 years, 4 months ago
Kindheart Dipesh
Jan 18, 2014

a.t.q as there is a chance 0.1% of malfunctioning within the 1st year. i.e. 01 out 100. since , there is 20 crucial components. i.e. 20 crucial components in 100 components . so the final ans is given in such a way : 20 * 0.1 * 1/100 * 100=2

Sathi Nagi Reddy
Jan 17, 2014

.1*20=2

Muneeb Khalil
Jan 14, 2014

its very easy if 20 parts are there each ha failing capacity of 0.1% so 2*0.1=2

Aditya Joshi
Jan 13, 2014

Let F F denote the event that a component in the iPhone fails and N N denote the event that it does not fail.

P ( F ) = 0.001 P(F) = 0.001 and thus P ( N ) = 1 P ( F ) = 0.999 P(N) = 1 - P(F) = 0.999

We have to find out the probability that the iPhone fails. The iPhone will fail even if one component fails.

The probability that at least one component fails (thereby making the iPhone fail) can be calculated as 1 P ( no component fails ) 1 - P(\text{no component fails})

Now, we find the probability that no component fails. That is simply 0.99 9 20 0.999^{20}

Thus, the probability of the iPhone failing is 1 0.99 9 20 0.0198 1 - 0.999^{20} \approx 0.0198 giving us 1.98 % \approx 1.98\% or rounded up, 2 \boxed{2}

Monish Kumar
Jan 12, 2014

THERE ARE TOTALLY 20 PARTS EACH HAS A PROBABILITY OF FAILING 0.1 FOR 20 THE FAILING PROBABILITY IS 20*0.1=2%

Sudeshna Pontula
Jan 12, 2014

This can be easily solved using the complement method. The chance that the iPhone will malfunction in the first year is the complement of the chance that it doesn't. So... P ( working ) = 1 P ( not working ) P(\mbox{working}) = 1 - P(\mbox{not working})

This is the chance that every one of the parts doesn't malfunction that year, and every part has a 99.9% of not failing. So

P ( not working ) = 0.99 9 20 0.9801 P(\mbox{not working}) = 0.999^{20} \approx 0.9801 , therefore

P ( working ) = 1 0.9801 0.02 P(\mbox{working}) = 1 - 0.9801 \approx 0.02

Navjot Singh
Jan 11, 2014

simple solution........since 20 parts,....therefore....20x0.1%= 2 which is the required answer...

Danveer Dewangan
Jan 11, 2014

the probability of not getting malfunction for each component is 1-0.001=.999 the probability of that all the component will work well= .999 to the power 20 =0.9801 the probability that i phone will create malfunction = 1-0.9801=0.0198

Divyesh Hirpara
Jan 9, 2014

just simple: 20 (crucial components) x (multiply) with 0.1% = 2%

Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^

Raj Magesh - 7 years, 5 months ago
Soham Zemse
Jan 9, 2014

20 x 0.1% = 2%

Why the hell any one would do this on calculator ?

Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^

Raj Magesh - 7 years, 5 months ago
Bhargav Adhav
Jan 9, 2014

Simple as that, parts=20 percentage=0.1 per annum =20/0.1/100

Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^

Raj Magesh - 7 years, 5 months ago
Sarthak Das
Jan 9, 2014

save time. go by common sense. 1 part has chance of failing is 0.1 %. therefore 20 parts together has a chance of failing = 20 *0.1 =2% of failing. simple

Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^

Raj Magesh - 7 years, 5 months ago
Andrew Tiu
Jan 8, 2014

.1%= .001. Therefore .001*(20 components)=.02 or 2%.

Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^

Raj Magesh - 7 years, 5 months ago
Lakshmi Tumati
Jan 8, 2014

There is a 0.1% chance for each part to malfunction, and there are 20 parts, so when you do 20 times 0.1 you get 2%. The correct answer is 2.

yes, that's the answer. was complicated in beginning, but is easy. (:

Wilker Paiva - 7 years, 4 months ago

Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^

Raj Magesh - 7 years, 5 months ago
Ng Donn
Jan 8, 2014

0.1% x 20 = 2%

Sorry wrong answer.

Ng Donn - 7 years, 5 months ago
Tristan Shin
Jan 7, 2014

By complementary counting, the answer is 1 minus the probability that the iPhone does NOT fail.

The probability that a component doesn't fail is 1 minus the probability that it does fail, which would be 0.999.

The probability that the iPhone fails is that to the twentieth power.

Now, take 1 minus that, and rounds to 2.

Meghan Keefe
Jan 7, 2014

0.1 x 20 = 2.0

Watch out for inclusion-exclusion!

Luke Chang - 7 years, 5 months ago

Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^

Raj Magesh - 7 years, 5 months ago

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