In an iPhone, there are numerous crucial components like a circuit board, an antenna, a liquid crystal display (LCD), and a battery. Over time, these components will experience wear and tear, and the iPhone will start to malfunction if any of them fail. In this event, you would not know which component had failed, or even the number of components that failed. You can only reboot your phone and hope for the best.
If the iPhone has 20 crucial components, each of which independently has a 0 . 1 % chance of failing within the first year after purchase, what is the percentage chance (in %) that the iPhone will malfunction in the first year?
Feel free to use a calculator, and round your answer to the nearest integer.
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Since there are 20 individual parts, at most all the parts can malfunction. So, 0.1% is the probability of any individual part for it to malfunction. Therefore, the required probability = 0.1 x 20 = 2%.
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i did the same thing and its also the easiest one
Same
Read the incorrect solution from Raj, and you'll see why this is wrong.
but if you multiply 0.1 x 20? the answer is also 20? how do we get 2% the answer in that situation? what did you do?
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its 2 when 0.1 is multiplied to 20 because itis only 1 digit decimal or tenths
Oops, 99.9%, not just 99.9.
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How to solve this question: If the iphone does not fail in the first year, what is the probability that it will or will not fail in second year? What data is needed for this? Please discuss
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You know that it won't fail in the first year. The probability is still the same, right? It's like you know it happens, the probability is 1. Multiplying by 1 is always the same.
If you don't know that, the probability that it will not fail is ( 1 0 0 0 9 9 9 ) 2 0 N where N is the number of years.
You could use Bayes Theorem to solve this.
Look it up online for more details.
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@Tristan Shin – If he knows that it doesn't fail in the 1st year, then why do we think about that?
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@Samuraiwarm Tsunayoshi – Bayes Theorem shows the probability of something happening given another thing. The other thing in this case is represented by a percentage, which affects the result. Therefore, the answer to this problem is not the same as the original problem.
hmm. lets see if they will ask for the second year than they will give the malfunctioning of the component for second year also so in that case we have to include both 1st -> the phone will not malfunction in frst year * it will malfunction on second year. than we have to add to the all the possiblities. post the question if you have any i will better sort it out
I see that I have got a problem in my solution although rounding that off gives the same. I did it using Binomial theorem saying that the iPhone will malfunction if 1,2,......,20 components fail.Thus as the probability of the failing of one component is 0.001 thus the equation becomes
20C1(0.001^1)+20C2(0.001^2)+........+20C20(0.001^20)
which is ((1+0.001)^20)-20C0
this multiplied by 100 should give the answer which I got to be
2.019114486 Please point out the mistake .........
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Actually the exact calculation yield a probability just less than 2%. The mistake in your calculation is Let r components fail and (20-r ) components donot. so as per binomial , the probability(P r) of failure is 20Cr * (.001)^r*(.999)^(20-r). you did not consider the probability of remaining components that did not fail and took it as 1. you will get your answer when you will summate the above (P r) from 1 -20. This is automatically equal to 1- 20C0*.999^20 which is the direct way of calculating (1- probability(the phone does not fail)).
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One more thing the small difference in answer have given you the correct answer of 2%. But for apple company, this would matter a lot. Consider they are manufacturing 10 crore phones ( just to say). so here they have to prepare themselves for about 19 thousand more phones that will fail. They have to keep their inventory which will be 20*19000. This could be a huge cost to apple. This is just a simple model. Actually the reliability, a probability time dependent function, of phone is also measured to minimise even this risk.
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Check this one , it might help you.
look how i solved it, 1 component=0.15% chance of failure 20 components =20/1*0.1 [using the unitary method] which gave me 2
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Read the incorrect solution from Raj, and you'll see why this is wrong.
how do we get the answer 2, if 999 is divided to 1000 in closed parenthesis 20? what did you possible do on that?
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The 1st part has 999/1000 chance of not failing.
The 2nd part also has 999/1000 chance of not failing.
................
The 20th part also has 999/1000 chance of not failing.
Therefore, the chance of not failing is 999/1000 * 999/1000 * ... * 999/1000 (20 times) = (999/1000)^20.
each of the parts has 0.1% chance. so for 20 together, 0.1 X 20 = 2%
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Read the incorrect solution from Raj, and you'll see why this is wrong.
0.1*20=2 therefore 2%
Oh gosh these wrong solutions made me mad mad mad. fffffffuuuuuuuuu
READ THE WRONG SOLUTION FROM RAJ BELOW MINE and you'll see WHY THIS SOLUTION YOU SAY IS WRONG.
Please please please don't make me insane. I beg you all lol.
we have 4 major components as provided in question .... so we will calculate the total % of them to be failed i.e. 0.4% then well find total % of them failing as 0.4/20 x 100 = 2
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I think you read the question wrong, and your solution is actually wrong. Everyone is commenting a wrong solution in my solution. I'm really mad right now. XD
%
I am followed = 0.1 x 20 = 2%.
We write all possibilities as a binomial expansion: ( S + F ) 2 0 = 1 , where S is the chance for success and F is the chance for failure. Expanding, we have S 2 0 + . . . = 1 . All of the omitted terms contain at least one failure, so this is equivalent to writing S 2 0 + P = 1 , where P is the chance of a failure. Thus P = 1 − S 2 0 = 1 − . 9 9 9 2 0 = . 0 1 9 8 , which we round to 2%.
i too thought of that... :)
One might have an inclination to multiply 0.1% × 0.1% × 0.1% ... 20 times. However, this would actually be the probability of all 20 components failing in one year.
Instead, we need to find the complement of the case of none of the components breaking.
To begin, we acknowledge that there is a 99.9% chance that a single component does not break during the first year. (100% - 0.1% = 99.9%)
Next, to find out the probability of none of the components breaking in the first year, we find 99.9% 2 0 : 0.999 2 0 = 0.980...
Finally, to find out the chance of at least one component breaking we subtract this from 100%: 100% - 98% = 2%
a good answer
The chance for the components of iPhones to function properly in its first year is 0.999 (1.0-0.001=0.999).
Since the 20 components are independent, we multiply 0.999 by 0.999 20 times, i.e. (0.999)^20 to compute for the chance of the overall system (since it is a series circuit).
(0.999^20 = 0.9801888648)
Thus, the chance for the iPhone to function properly is approximately 98%. Accordingly, the chance for the iPhone to fail is 2%.
Hence, the answer is 2. :)
0.1% times 20 (there are 20 crucial parts) = 2%
there are 20 components. So, 20 *0.1= 2%.
(0.1%)x 20 = 2% so in that case the answer will be 2%
HERES SOMETHING WHICH BEGINNERS WOULD LOVE http://www.mathsisfun.com/combinatorics/combinations-permutations.html
Each component have the probability of failing in one year is 0.1%. There are such 20 components. So just simply add all their probabilities. The ans is 2
Chance of failing of one component = 0.1% = 1/100 (converted percent to fraction).Now, there are 20 components. let's assume that all component failed and chances of failing of all 20 components is 20 * (1/100) = 1/50 or 0.02. multiplying by hundred we get 2% that's the answer.
20 components x 0.1 = 2 percent
if any one component fails i phone will be failed if 2 components failed i phone will be failed .... so on then probability to fail is p= 20c1 0.1/100 + 20c2 0.1/100+......so on % chance to be failed is p*100=2.019 nearly 2
0.1/100 = 0.001 0.001 20= 0.02 0.02 100=2
since each component has a independent failure chance of 0.1% ,i phone has 20 crucial components , 20*0.1=2,i.e 2% is chance of iPhone will malfunction in the first year.
It is very simple..... I phone malfunctions when any one part does not work. so selecting at least one piece out of 20 is 20C1. now the chances of the part getting damaged is 1/10 times.... thus the chance for the phone getting damaged is 20C1 (1/10). it is equal to 20 .1=2 **Here C represents Combination
20 crucial components, 0.1% of chance to malfunction for each component. Then divide 20 by 0.1. It gives you 2.0. That is 2%.
I owe an apology, mustn't divide but to multiply 20 and 0.1. So we get 2%.
a.t.q as there is a chance 0.1% of malfunctioning within the 1st year. i.e. 01 out 100. since , there is 20 crucial components. i.e. 20 crucial components in 100 components . so the final ans is given in such a way : 20 * 0.1 * 1/100 * 100=2
its very easy if 20 parts are there each ha failing capacity of 0.1% so 2*0.1=2
Let F denote the event that a component in the iPhone fails and N denote the event that it does not fail.
P ( F ) = 0 . 0 0 1 and thus P ( N ) = 1 − P ( F ) = 0 . 9 9 9
We have to find out the probability that the iPhone fails. The iPhone will fail even if one component fails.
The probability that at least one component fails (thereby making the iPhone fail) can be calculated as 1 − P ( no component fails )
Now, we find the probability that no component fails. That is simply 0 . 9 9 9 2 0
Thus, the probability of the iPhone failing is 1 − 0 . 9 9 9 2 0 ≈ 0 . 0 1 9 8 giving us ≈ 1 . 9 8 % or rounded up, 2
THERE ARE TOTALLY 20 PARTS EACH HAS A PROBABILITY OF FAILING 0.1 FOR 20 THE FAILING PROBABILITY IS 20*0.1=2%
This can be easily solved using the complement method. The chance that the iPhone will malfunction in the first year is the complement of the chance that it doesn't. So... P ( working ) = 1 − P ( not working )
This is the chance that every one of the parts doesn't malfunction that year, and every part has a 99.9% of not failing. So
P ( not working ) = 0 . 9 9 9 2 0 ≈ 0 . 9 8 0 1 , therefore
P ( working ) = 1 − 0 . 9 8 0 1 ≈ 0 . 0 2
simple solution........since 20 parts,....therefore....20x0.1%= 2 which is the required answer...
the probability of not getting malfunction for each component is 1-0.001=.999 the probability of that all the component will work well= .999 to the power 20 =0.9801 the probability that i phone will create malfunction = 1-0.9801=0.0198
just simple: 20 (crucial components) x (multiply) with 0.1% = 2%
Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^
20 x 0.1% = 2%
Why the hell any one would do this on calculator ?
Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^
Simple as that, parts=20 percentage=0.1 per annum =20/0.1/100
Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^
save time. go by common sense. 1 part has chance of failing is 0.1 %. therefore 20 parts together has a chance of failing = 20 *0.1 =2% of failing. simple
Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^
.1%= .001. Therefore .001*(20 components)=.02 or 2%.
Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^
There is a 0.1% chance for each part to malfunction, and there are 20 parts, so when you do 20 times 0.1 you get 2%. The correct answer is 2.
yes, that's the answer. was complicated in beginning, but is easy. (:
Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^
Sorry wrong answer.
By complementary counting, the answer is 1 minus the probability that the iPhone does NOT fail.
The probability that a component doesn't fail is 1 minus the probability that it does fail, which would be 0.999.
The probability that the iPhone fails is that to the twentieth power.
Now, take 1 minus that, and rounds to 2.
Watch out for inclusion-exclusion!
Yeah, I thought that too at first. I was wrong, as you can see from the comments on my solution above. ^.^
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There're 20 parts that have 9 9 . 9 % = 1 0 0 0 9 9 9 chance of not failing.
We'll find by using
P(Failing) = P(Total chance) - P(Not failing) = 1 - P(Not failing)
The chance that it will not fail = ( 1 0 0 0 9 9 9 ) 2 0 .
Therefore, P(Failing) = 1 - ( 1 0 0 0 9 9 9 ) 2 0 = 0.0198111351705. 2 ... *Fail, can't type %