The Monty Hall Problem

Imagine you are playing the game show, Let's Make a Deal. In the show, your host will ask you to choose one of the three doors. Behind one , and only one door, there is a brand new dream sports car that anyone would want. It is super fast, shiny, bright red and really expensive.

You choose one of the doors and then, your host walks up to another unopened door, opens it , and behind it is a booby prize , which he already knew it was behind it. Your host then asks if you want to stay with the door you chose or switch to the other unopened door.

If you really want the sports car, which choice would give you a higher chance of winning the car?


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It is 50/50 chance, it doesn't matter Stay Switch

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1 solution

William Huang
Jul 24, 2017

Relevant wiki: Monty Hall Problem

At first glance, many people would say that the chances are 50 / 50 50/50 , however, if you look deeper into the question and what it's asking, you would understand that the answer is to switch. The answer is to switch because if you were to stay, the chances for you to win is 1 / 3 1/3 , however, if you were to switch to the other door, the chances for you to win would be 2 / 3 2/3 .

If you would like further understanding, watch this .

This problem is wrong. You have to state in the problem that the host knew that it would be a llama behind the door that he opened.

Siva Budaraju - 3 years, 10 months ago

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Well @Sivea Budaraju, in the question, it does say that;

 ...your host walks up to another door, opens it, and behind it is a booby prize.

A booby prize can be anything, usually a cheap, joke prize like a llama. I couldn't find any pictures that have an explicit "booby prize", so I had to go with the picture with the llama behind it, if you are confused by the pictures, I'm sorry.

William Huang - 3 years, 10 months ago

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What I meant is that the announcer should know beforehand that the door he opens has a booby prize.

Siva Budaraju - 3 years, 10 months ago

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@Siva Budaraju Alright, sure! Is this better any better? If not, please tell me how you would like it to be. :)

William Huang - 3 years, 10 months ago

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@William Huang Yes, this is fine. Thanks for updating it.

Siva Budaraju - 3 years, 10 months ago

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